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EJ Macababbad - The Philippine Star
May 25, 2026 | 12:00am
Most of the provinces affected will be in the Visayas and Mindanao, where rainfall may be only 41 to 80 percent of the average.
AFP / File
MANILA, Philippines — About 49 provinces may experience below-normal rainfall by October when meteorologists expect the emergence of a “very strong” El Niño, according to Science Secretary Renato Solidum Jr.
Most of the provinces affected will be in the Visayas and Mindanao, where rainfall may be only 41 to 80 percent of the average.
By November, some areas in Northern Luzon may experience way-below-normal rainfall, receiving just 20 percent of the average.
Solidum said farmers will be most affected by the likelihood of a “very strong” El Niño phenomenon during the October-November period.
“We cannot expect enough supply of water from rainfall, so if you’ll plant during this time, you should reschedule your planting season or ensure first that irrigation is adequate in your areas,” Solidum told radio dzRH on Saturday. “We must understand that water supply may be lacking in ‘below-normal’ areas and especially ‘way-below-normal’ ones.”
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration reported that there’s a 92 percent chance that a “weak” El Niño will be formed during the June to August season.
Come September to November, El Niño may become “strong,” and there’s a 30 percent chance that it intensifies further into “very strong” in the October to November window.
Solidum said average rainfall in June will remain normal, but 11 provinces will already experience below-normal rain come July.
Rain will be frequent again from mid-August through September, before the below-normal and way-below-normal wave hits most provinces.
Solidum said conditions will normalize again by November.
The Department of Science and Technology chief warned that, besides farmers, fisherfolk may also feel the pinch of El Niño.
“Warmer waters prevent colder ones from rising, preventing fish from consuming nutrient-packed waters. So, in the food web, there’s a bit of starvation that may lead to cuts in fish production,” Solidum explained.
With the public already asked to conserve electricity due to the energy crisis, they may also need to conserve water to prevent strain on dams.
“We need to save water in our homes so that we can extend the supply in our dams. We must ensure, for instance, that those in car washes won’t endlessly spray water,” Solidum said.
The Department of Agriculture said it has already activated its El Niño Task Force to protect local food production.
The DOST has deployed some of its innovations to assist farmers during this time, including solar-powered irrigation pumps. This can discharge up to 50 cubic meters of water using solar energy.
The most recent recipients of this equipment, which costs P165,000 each, are Aurora farmers, who are expected to save P4,000 daily.
