ASEAN Chair

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It is the most inauspicious time for the Philippines to take the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN. Our corruption scandal has stripped us of credibility. Regional tensions involving its members have never been as bad as it is now. And big power rivalry is ripping the alliance apart.

As ASEAN Chair in 2026, the Philippines faces challenges balancing our South China Sea problems with regional unity, managing internal political pressures, navigating great power competition and addressing the Myanmar crisis without clear consensus.

It will also be a challenge to progress on ambitious economic integration goals, articulated in 1992 with the signing of the Framework Agreement on Enhancing ASEAN Economic Cooperation, which established the goal of an ASEAN Free Trade Area.

One big headache for ASEAN is the civil war in Myanmar. The military junta is ignoring ASEAN pressure.

Then there is the worsening border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia.

Our conflict with China over our exclusive economic zone in the West Philippine Sea is also getting worse. Filipino fishermen in frail wooden bancas are being bombarded with water cannons by large and modern Chinese Coast Guard ships.

China has been increasingly belligerent and has established large, fully-functioning military bases on the “Big Three” (Subi, Mischief, Fiery Cross Reefs) with airstrips and missile emplacements, creating significant air and naval hubs.

Recent construction has shifted to smaller, previously occupied islets, adding infrastructure like housing, helipads and power supplies for self-sufficiency and better access. China’s total number of buildings and artificial land far exceeds that of Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan and Malaysia combined, solidifying its dominant presence.

The legally baseless nine-dash lines remind me of the outburst from Yang Jiechi, former foreign minister of China, at the 2010 meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum when he famously said: “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact.” It showed how China viewed the smaller states in its neighborhood — as vassal states.

Because we have the most problems with China, it is expected that we will prioritize the adoption of the long pending Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. But that doesn’t mean it will get anywhere.

China has no incentive to let this regional effort move forward. Indeed, increasing US presence in the Philippines is giving China more reasons to militarize the reefs.

The other important area of regional concern is the economy. ASEAN economies are heavily invested in the rules-based free and open trading system which has allowed their economies to flourish in the last three decades. The Trump tariffs have created serious problems that made ASEAN nations break ranks and in panic, conducted their own bilateral negotiations with the US.

Because China is the region’s economic powerhouse, many ASEAN nations consider it in their interest to pursue stronger economic ties with China. Indeed, China’s leading role in artificial intelligence, robotics, electric vehicles and green energy gives it major influence over the region’s economies.

The Economist pointed out that “This year showed the power of China’s industrial chokeholds. China’s share of the world’s manufacturing value added exceeds one-third, giving it the power to disrupt global supply chains overnight.

“In green technology, Chinese firms supply the materials, components and finished goods for 60-80 percent of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles.

“DeepSeek showed what China can do in artificial intelligence, despite America’s best efforts to hobble it. China’s drug firms now run nearly as many clinical trials as their American peers — and do them faster.”

But despite a public stance of neutrality, most ASEAN countries quietly welcome a US military presence as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence, particularly for maritime security.

Singapore and Vietnam are actively facilitating US access while treaty allies Philippines and Thailand have formal defense ties. US military presence is seen as providing stability and enhances regional defense.

But with the new isolationist and transactional Trump foreign policy, the US may no longer be a dependable ally. ASEAN will have to carefully navigate the treacherous waters of Big Power rivalry in the region, preferably as a regional bloc. But most likely, will end up with each ASEAN member pursuing a China-US policy their own way.

A paper from the LKY School of Public Policy in Singapore notes: “while Beijing has made a great play of its economic initiatives, such as the establishment of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, the introduction of the BRI and the Global Development Initiative, and its central role in the BRICS grouping, the US remains the largest investor in Southeast Asia by a considerable distance.

“In fact, China trails behind not only the US but also Japan and the European Union in terms of investment in Southeast Asia, though the gap is closing.

“Likewise, it bears recalling that in terms of infrastructure, Japan has been a longstanding partner of many Southeast Asian states since the late 1970s, and Tokyo continues to invest heavily in the region, both bilaterally and through the Asia Development Bank.”

That explains why China-loving Duterte failed to get significant Chinese ODA, not even the promised train system in Davao, during his term. Japan has been more reliable on infrastructure ODA projects.

Our ASEAN Chair duties will be made more difficult by our lack of credibility. The corruption scandal hovers over everything BBM says and does. Our economic performance has also been greatly overshadowed by Vietnam, an ASEAN newcomer.

With our house in such terrible disorder, our ASEAN partners can’t take our regional leadership seriously.

When all else fails, we can be expected to give the ASEAN heads of states a fantastic show with our best entertainers at the end of the year as we turn over the chair to Singapore. That’s our expertise, putting up shows.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco