BPI delivers quality growth, buffers intact

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February 3, 2026 | 11:50am

From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves

Event

BPI posted 4Q25 net income of P16.1bn, higher by 15% YoY (but -8% QoQ). This takes FY25 net income to P66.6bn, up 7% YoY, broadly in line with consensus and AB Cap’s forecasts at 99-100%. Strong revenue growth offset higher provisions and opex, sustaining positive jaws, with ROE at 14.5%.

View

We think results confirm earnings resilience. NIM expanded 28bps to 4.6% alongside 14.7% loan growth, led by non-institutional segments. Higher provisions appear prudent rather than stress-driven, with asset quality stable and coverage ratios comfortably above regulatory thresholds.

Catalyst

Key catalysts include management guidance on 2026 loan growth and margin trajectory amid easing policy rates. Upside comes from sustained consumer and SME momentum, while risks stem from faster-than-expected NIM compression or a sharper rise in credit costs.

Action

We maintain a Buy on BPI (O/P, TP P138.4). Valuations remain attractive given solid ROE, strong capital buffers, and improving efficiency. The stock offers defensiveness with embedded upside as loan growth normalizes and the rate cycle turns supportive.

Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.