Cautious trading ahead of inflation, GDP data

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August 3, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — Cautious trading is seen prevailing this week as investors keep an eye on upcoming key macroeconomic data releases.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index ended in the red Friday at 6.236.44, down by 0.71 percent week-on-week, as bearishness persisted as the war in the Middle East caused another oil rally while the peso hit another record low.

This week, investors are expected to set their sights on upcoming economic data, primarily on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP).

“Cautious mood is expected to continue with July inflation data ahead, which will need to show disinflation trend continuing if BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) is to stick to its baby steps hiking pace,” First Metro Investment Corp. head of research Cristina Ulang said.

2TradeAsia.com, the online arm of F. Yap Securities Inc, said higher-than-expected July inflation might support the case for possible rate hike from the local central bank.

A lower-than-expected second quarter GDP, meanwhile, could lead to tempered portfolio exposure in equities, it said.

“July’s inflation and Q2 GDP could influence BSP’s rate path, as regional central banks are seen to match the Fed’s next direction on interest rates. Oil prices will remain volatile, supporting the case for the Fed’s possible September rate hike,” 2TradeAsia.com said.

July inflation will be announced on Aug. 5, while second quarter GDP growth will be announced on Aug. 7.

For Philstocks Financial research manager Japhet Tantiangco, downside risks brought by the US-Iran war are still expected to keep investors cautious.

He said any negative developments between the two, which would bring global oil prices higher, is expected to weigh on the local bourse.

“Chartwise, the market tried to make another run in the earlier part of last week, hitting a peak of 6,436.11 on Wednesday. However, this was not enough to beat its July 21 peak of 6,488.35. Hence, the market established a lower high which is a negative signal,” Tantiangco said.

“The market also closed last week below its 10-day exponential moving average. Moving forward, if the market fails to get back above its 10-day EMA, it may test next its 50-day EMA,” he said.

Major support for the week is seen at 6,150, while major resistance is at 6,400.