CCAA: Mindanao in humanitarian crisis

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A CATASTROPHIC convergence of climate disaster and post-election instability has plunged Mindanao into a deepening humanitarian crisis, with floodwaters submerging communities still reeling from what observers call "the most violent elections in the region."

In a report issued on Thursday, Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), an independent nongovernmental organization that gathers and analyses climate and conflict data, said the fragile peace following May's midterm elections — marked by widespread violence, intimidation, and militarization — has been shattered by torrential rains from a tropical storm.

The CCAA cited data from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council that showed 192,000 people (38,689 families) have so far been affected across Maguindanao del Sur and neighboring provinces, with floodwaters now spreading to Zamboanga del Sur.

The worst-impacted towns — including Datu Abdullah Sangki, Shariff Aguak, and Mamasapano — share a dangerous combination of environmental vulnerability and entrenched conflict. These areas, home to multiple armed groups and decades-old clan rivalries, now face election-era tensions boiling over in overcrowded evacuation centers.

CCAA warned that the flooding has created "a prime example of how climate shocks intersect with fault lines that destabilize communities already on edge."

In evacuation centers, displaced families from rival political factions find themselves forced together, reviving election-related animosities.

Humanitarian operations face severe challenges as communities fear relief will be weaponized. Reports indicate outgoing incumbents may redirect aid to their own supporters while newly elected leaders could withhold assistance from opposition villages. The delayed release of calamity funds — which many suspect were diverted for election campaigns — has further eroded trust in institutions.

It said the disaster has created alarming security gaps as flooded marshlands now serve as illegal transit routes, with armed groups exploiting submerged roads to move weapons and personnel undetected.

Traditional fishing and farming communities face economic ruin, with reports of armed groups recruiting displaced youth. Critical security checkpoints have been rendered ineffective by rising waters, creating ideal conditions for settling old scores.

Despite the crisis, CCAA documents remarkable examples of cross-clan cooperation. In several barangay, rival families have joined forces to build makeshift drainage systems and share scarce resources. The report notes such cooperation could form the basis for longer-term reconciliation if properly nurtured by authorities.

The crisis presents a critical test for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), with CCAA warning the region's future stability hangs in the balance. Local governments report being stretched to their limits while awaiting delayed financial support.

Special Geographic Areas remain particularly vulnerable due to lacking provincial support structures. Public skepticism grows about institutional capacity to respond effectively.

CCAA and the Early Response Network demanded immediate conflict-sensitive aid distribution using transparent beneficiary lists and civilian oversight. They emphasize the need to release municipal calamity funds and BARMM READi resources without delay. Enhanced monitoring through systems like the Critical Events Monitoring System could help track both flood risks and conflict flashpoints.

The groups also call for prepositioned relief in adjacent vulnerable areas before the next storms hit.

"The credibility of institutions and their leaders, and the future of peace itself, will be measured by decisive action, not the empty weight of rhetoric," the CCAA said, emphasizing the stakes for upcoming parliamentary elections in October.