Decision tree: The Lady or the tiger

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June 3, 2025 | 12:00am

In the high-stakes arena of corporate strategy, where million-dollar decisions are sometimes made over lukewarm coffee and passive-aggressive slide decks, decision-making isn’t just king — it’s the whole monarchy, complete with a questionable tax policy, ceremonial jargon and an HR-approved coat of arms.

Gone are the days when executives relied on gut instincts to quote Peter Drucker out of context while avoiding spreadsheets like they were laced with ransomware. Enter the Decision Tree. This humble tool, often overshadowed by its flashier cousins like the Fishbone Diagram, quietly continues to guide sharp thinkers through murky waters.

It’s like having a GPS navigation system for problem-solving. Rather than leaving your company’s fate to a game of rock-paper-scissors or hoping the problem evaporates by the next fiscal quarter, the Decision Tree offers a viable structure.

It presents a step-by-step logical map, guiding managers through choices like a wise, unbothered elder with a flipchart and a sense of dry humor. The Decision Tree is not perfect. Some find it too simplistic, others find it cumbersome. And then there are those who think it lacks charisma — no stylish branding, no TED Talk-worthy visuals and no celebrity endorsements.

It doesn’t have the cool factor of the SWOT analysis or the drama of the Pareto chart. But what it lacks in dazzle, it makes up for in clarity. The Decision Tree simplifies the chaos. Think of it as a choose-your-own-adventure novel, only with fewer dragons and more career implications.

Instead of vague hunches, it provides a clear structure for mapping options, estimating risks and identifying outcomes. And yes, even the most creative marketer or free-spirited team leader can benefit from a little structure now and then.

The Lady or the tiger?

Speaking of decision-making, few stories illustrate its drama better than that of American humorist Frank Stockton (1834-1902) who wrote the classic short story, The Lady or the tiger? This tale has perplexed readers for over a century and continues to provoke heated debates in literature classes, book clubs and office break rooms where people pretend to be working.

In this story, a young courtier falls in love with a princess — a bold move and risky in a kingdom run by a monarch who treats justice like a game show. The king, displeased by the relationship, forces the courtier to participate in a trial where he must choose between two doors:

Behind one is another beautiful woman, selected to marry him and behind the other, a ravenous tiger with no interest in wedding vows. Here’s the twist: the princess knows which door hides the tiger. She subtly signals to her lover which one to choose. The big question: does she direct him to the lady, condemning herself to heartbreak, or the tiger, condemning him to become its lunch?

The story ends without revealing the courtier’s choice, forcing readers to grapple with human nature, jealousy and what they’d do in a similar situation. This is decision-making in its purest, most brutal form allowing you to make your own decision without knowing the risk. It’s a great reminder of what happens when we make choices based on emotion rather than logic.

Instead of leaving your future to instinct, or worse, someone else’s grudge, you break down the situation, analyze the options, assign probabilities and consider outcomes. Suddenly, you’re not just guessing — you’re strategizing.

Politics

Fast forward to modern politics, and you’ll find no shortage of situations that could benefit from a Decision Tree — and perhaps a few breathing exercises. Take the case of Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio representing the modern-day courtier faced with two metaphorical doors.

Behind one: loyalists eager to push her toward the 2028 presidency, possibly with fireworks, campaign jingles and a commemorative hashtag. Behind the other: a brigade of prosecutors with bulging briefcases, a thirst for accountability and access to every audit finding in the country.

Suddenly, Stockton’s fable starts to feel like light reading. This is where the Decision Tree excels. It takes murky, politically charged choices and lays them bare. It doesn’t care about political slogans or press conferences. It asks, “What are your options, and what might happen next?”

Former president Ferdinand Marcos Sr., known for his eloquence and iron-fisted governance during Martial Law, once said, “For every tear, a victory.” Inspiring? Maybe. Vague? Definitely. Clearly, what leaders need isn’t a poetic catchphrase but a map. The Decision Tree provides that map, helping people see not only the destination but all the potential detours, sinkholes and scandals along the way.

It doesn’t prevent mistakes, but it ensures those mistakes are at least well-documented.

Final word

So, what’s the big takeaway here? Whether you’re navigating your business through market turbulence, surviving government hearings, or just trying to decide where to order lunch, the Decision Tree is your friend. It may not make your problems go away, but it will help you understand them better.

It adds structure where there’s chaos, logic where there’s emotion and a sense of control in a world where even your internet browser judges you for opening 47 tabs at once. In a landscape dominated by uncertainty and complexity, the Decision Tree isn’t just a tool. It’s your quiet, unassuming mentor — calmly guiding you from confusion to clarity, one node at a time.

Rey Elbo is a quality and productivity specialist who believes that decision trees are proof that logic can be funny. Share your story at [email protected] or connect via Facebook, LinkedIn, X, or https://reyelbo.com. All stories are anonymous unless you want to be famous for a day.