DEPDev: Government needs P429 billion for prolonged Mideast relief

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April 14, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The government would have to cough up P429 billion to fund support and relief measures if the Middle East conflict drags on until December, according to the Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev).

At yesterday’s hearing of the Senate PROTECT committee, DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan presented payout estimates for the critical support and relief measures covering July until December. PROTECT stands for Proactive Response and Oversight for Timely and Effective Crisis Strategy.

For the first three months of April to June, he said the payout estimate amounts to around P146.8 billion.

“These are very indicative numbers. They are not final. In the next few days, we’ll be sitting down with implementing agencies to get the finalized numbers at least for April to June,” he said.

The estimated amounts include transport support, fuel and fertilizer subsidies for food security, as well as social protection for the poor and near poor.

Balisacan said the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) has identified P238 billion worth of resources from the continuing 2025 appropriations and the 2026 appropriations for the interventions.

Of that amount, he said about half or P125 billion has been released as of April 1, while P113.4 billion is available for release.

“If the tension in the Middle East will extend to the next six months, that is July to December, then obviously the demand for resources will be much greater,” he pointed out.

On the scenario’s impact on the economy, he said he does not expect a contraction this year.

“The good thing is I don’t see that the economy will contract. I don’t think that is a possibility, if we play our cards well,” he said. However, he said that the five to six percent growth targeted for this year is no longer doable.

He said most analysts are projecting three to four percent growth for the Philippines for this year. Last year, the economy grew by 4.4 percent, below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth target.

At the same hearing, Trade Secretary Cristina Roque said the Department of Trade and Industry has received 1,820 loan applications from micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) amounting to P3.2 billion amid rising costs due to the Middle East conflict.

P85 billion monthly cost

Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian, chairman of the ad hoc committee, said the ongoing Middle East conflict is costing the government between P70 billion and P85 billion a month, threatening to completely wipe out the state’s available crisis funds in just two and a half months.

He warned that the government is rapidly burning through its P238.6-billion standby appropriation from the 2025 and 2026 national budgets.

“If you divide P238 billion by P70 billion, that’s three and a half months. Nakalagpas na tayo ng isang buwan (We’ve gone beyond one month). So in other words... two and a half months na lang natitira (are remaining),” Gatchalian said.

He stressed that if the war overshoots this financial runway, the state will hit a fiscal wall.

Balisacan said the P85-billion monthly projection only reflects direct government expenditures. “Economic cost would be much, much more,” Balisacan warned.

DBM Secretary Rolando Toledo confirmed the multibillion-peso monthly burn rate.

To slow the rate, Toledo said the DBM is ordering state agencies to slash non-essential maintenance and operating expenses – such as travel and training – to generate an initial P12 billion to P25 billion in savings.

If the crisis extends further, Toledo noted the executive branch will have to invoke Executive Order 110, which declared a national energy emergency, to suspend existing government programs and repurpose their budgets for public relief.

Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro made it clear that the agreement between the Philippines and Iran for the safe passage of Philippine-flagged vessels through Hormuz Strait remains in force, despite President Trump’s announcement of a blockade.

“The agreement between the Philippines and Iran, through the discussions that we had, will remain the same,” Lazaro said at a press conference after the Second Special ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on the situation in the Middle East. — Neil Jayson Servallos, Pia Lee-Brago