Future Basyang: LPA outside PAR develops into tropical depression

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The newly formed tropical depression is located 1,075 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao on Tuesday afternoon, February 3, still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility

MANILA, Philippines – A low pressure area (LPA) being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 2 pm on Tuesday, February 3.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 pm advisory that the tropical depression is expected to enter PAR on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, February 4.

The tropical depression was located 1,075 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao as of 4 pm on Tuesday, still outside PAR.

It is slowly moving northwest, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

Once the tropical depression enters PAR, it will be given the local name Basyang.

PAGASA said the future Basyang is “less likely to directly affect weather conditions” in the country in the next 24 hours. But the trough or extension of the tropical depression may already trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, the Negros Island Region, Caraga, the Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, and the Zamboanga Peninsula.

The tropical cyclone is projected to make landfall in Caraga by Thursday afternoon or evening, February 5, then cross the Visayas and Palawan from Friday, February 6, to Sunday, February 8.

On Thursday, significant rain is expected to begin hitting Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, and the Davao Region.

Here is the weather bureau’s initial rainfall outlook for the tropical cyclone, issued at 5 pm on Tuesday:

Wednesday afternoon, February 4, to Thursday afternoon, February 5

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and Davao Oriental

Thursday afternoon, February 5, to Friday afternoon, February 6

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Bukidnon, and Davao del Norte

As early as Wednesday, Signal No. 1 may also be raised in Eastern Visayas and Caraga, in anticipation of strong winds from the tropical cyclone.

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to the potential Basyang is Signal No. 2, since it is seen to intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning.

The future Basyang would be the Philippines’ second tropical cyclone for 2026, after Tropical Storm Ada (Nokaen) in January.

PAGASA expects up to one tropical cyclone in February. – Rappler.com