‘GDP growth falters, misses 2025 target’

Upgrade to High-Speed Internet for only ₱1499/month!

Enjoy up to 100 Mbps fiber broadband, perfect for browsing, streaming, and gaming.

Visit Suniway.ph to learn

January 26, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine economy likely grew below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent target in 2025 and at a slower pace compared to 2024, according to economists.

Alvin Arogo, head of research division and chief economist at Philippine National Bank said that the economy is expected to have posted 3.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

This brings the full-year 2025 growth projection to 4.5 percent, below the 5.7 percent full-year expansion in 2024.

“We believe economic growth slowed down further from four percent in 3Q25 (third quarter 2025) due to the sustained decline in public construction, tapering of government spending post-election, easing of front-loading boost to exports and dip in consumer confidence,” Arogo said.

Ateneo de Manila University assistant professor Ser Percival Peña-Reyes expects the economy to have expanded by four percent in the fourth quarter last year, matching the pace in the third quarter.

For full-year 2025, he projects growth at 4.7 percent.

For Pantheon Macroeconomics chief emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco, the economy is expected to have posted 4.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter last year, while full-year 2025 growth is estimated at 4.8 percent.

“The modest improvement we expect in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter should come on a quarter-over-quarter sequential basis from both private consumption and net exports, while government spending and fixed investment probably remained very weak,” he said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said his gross domestic product estimate for the fourth quarter last year is at 4.8 percent, while his full-year 2025 growth forecast is at 4.9 percent.

For her part, Moody’s Analytics assistant director-economist Sarah Tan said the economy likely posted a 5.3-percent growth in the fourth quarter last year, bringing the estimated full-year growth for 2025 to 5.1 percent.

While strong demand for electronics may have supported export growth in the latter part of 2025, she said weather disturbances weighed on economic activity, particularly through disruptions to agriculture, infrastructure and household consumption.

“In addition, government integrity involving flood control projects likely undermined business confidence, weighing on investment,” she said.

Earlier, Department of Economy, Planning and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said that the economy likely grew by 4.8 to five percent last year, below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth target.

Philippine economic growth slowed to a four-year low of four percent in the third quarter last year from 5.5 percent in the second quarter and 5.4 percent in the first quarter as revelations of flood control irregularities led to a contraction in public construction and dampened consumer and investor sentiment.

From January to September last year, the economy grew by five percent.

Data on the country’s fourth quarter and full-year 2025 economic performance will be released on Jan. 29.