‘Green capital at risk in Philippines, SEA as priorities shift’

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May 20, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — Southeast Asia could attract about $540 billion in green investments through 2030, though over a third may not materialize as climate goals are weighed against energy needs and broader economic priorities.

In their “Southeast Asia’s Green Economy Report 2026: The New Calculus,” Bain & Co. and Standard Chartered estimate that only about $315 billion in green capital is likely to be deployed under current conditions.

That puts as much as $225 billion in potential green investment at risk for the region, including the Philippines.

“Capital is flowing where commercial demand, energy security and policy that delivers infrastructure come together and stalling where any of the three is missing, even where targets remain ambitious,” said Dale Hardcastle, partner at Bain & Co.

Financing has also been increasingly gravitating toward sectors where demand is proven and returns are clearly established.

Between 2021 and 2025, about 80 percent of the region’s $40 billion in annual green investments went to just two areas: the power sector and the electric vehicle value chain.

The report noted that demand in these segments is both real and commercially viable.

“ASEAN’s green economy is real and scaled, with expectations that it could be worth $430 billion by 2030, but the system is struggling to absorb the investment,” said Patrick Lee, CEO for Singapore, Asean and South Asia at Standard Chartered.

Notably, around 35 percent of committed green capital in the region has yet to be realized, a gap larger than what is typically seen in most other markets globally, Lee said.

For the Philippines alone, the report highlighted that while climate goals remain in place, progress continues to lag, especially on the investment front.

The government earlier estimated that the Philippines would need at least $72 billion in financing to cut carbon emissions and support global efforts to address the climate crisis.

While the Philippines has yet to declare a net-zero target, it has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent by 2030, under its nationally determined contribution.

At the center of this commitment is the government’s push to expand the share of renewables in the power mix, which remains heavily reliant on coal generation.

Currently, coal accounts for over 60 percent of the mix, while renewable energy makes up only 25 percent.