Investment pipeline and exports gain momentum

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October 12, 2026 | 9:42am

From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves

Event

PEZA investment approvals reached P297.14 billion by end-September, leaving only P13.86 billion needed to exceed the 2012 record of P311 billion. Meanwhile, merchandise exports rose 15% YoY to US$64.04 billion in January-August, supported by strong electronics demand and a record US$9.11 billion August print.

View

We think the two trends reinforce each other. Higher electronics and semiconductor investment should expand future export capacity, while stronger export demand improves the economics of additional manufacturing investment. The more important question is how quickly approved projects convert into construction, equipment imports, employment and actual production.

Catalyst

Reaching US$100 billion of exports requires about US$36 billion in September-December, or roughly US$9 billion per month, close to August's US$9.11 billion level. The target therefore looks achievable if electronics momentum holds, although weaker global demand or project delays would lower both export and investment conversion.

Action

In our view, the read-through is positive for industrial property, logistics, power and banks financing manufacturing expansion, while stronger exports should also help the external balance over time. We would become more constructive as PEZA approvals translate into committed capex and monthly exports remain near US$9 billion.

Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.