Is El Niño next?

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MANILA, Philippines — If the sudden rise in oil prices because of the US-Israel war with Iran caught us by surprise, we shouldn’t let El Niño hit us where it hurts the most: in our tummies.

The Washington Post reports that we may experience a strong or even a super El Niño later this year, one that could rival the strongest ones in history. This forecast is based on new climate data recently released by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

While El Niño traditionally brings drought, it has also caused “supercharged” and intense typhoons due to higher ocean temperatures. A super El Niño happens 10 to 15 years on average, and its effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread.

The Post reports that starting in the middle of the year, there will be potential for more typhoons in the Western Pacific, including across the Philippines, China and Japan.

According to PAGASA, there is a significant and increasing probability of an El Niño event developing in the second half of 2026, with a potential for severe impacts if it coincides with the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat).

Following the wet season, if the El Niño persists, it is expected to bring below-normal rainfall, dry spells and droughts from the last quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027. But international weather forecasters also say it may be too early to make definite predictions.

Then again, it is never too early to prepare. This is about food and we don’t produce enough for our needs even in better times. And we don’t have a strategic reserve for staples like rice and corn. We import food on a hand-to-mouth basis.

We are one of the world’s largest rice importers. As of 2024, our rice Import Dependency Ratio reached a record high of 28.3 percent, mainly sourced from Vietnam and Thailand. Having a strategic stockpile of rice is probably a good idea.

We are also wasting a large portion of whatever food we produce. According to a new report, we had record growth in our agri sector but the gains were negated by rising costs and waste.

According to the latest Philippine Food Systems Review published by Foodlink Advocacy Co-operative, the agriculture sector saw its best performance in eight years, but this success is threatened by a “waste crisis” due to the lack of logistics and post-harvest infrastructure.

Citing a Global Foodbankng Network report, Anton Simon Palo and Fermin Diaz point out that a staggering 50 percent of all harvested crops in the Philippines are lost or wasted every year.

In major trading hubs, like the Nueva Vizcaya Agricultural Terminal, roughly 500 tons of edible food are dumped daily because they cannot be kept fresh. It is apparently more than just the tomatoes we are seeing on Facebook being dumped.

“There is logistical friction along the value and supply chains, making it problematic to translate impressive farm gate production into actual availability, accessibility and affordability of food at the retail level up to the dinner table,” they said.

So, for now, ordinary consumers continue to feel the pinch of high food prices. It is estimated that reducing post-harvest losses by just one-third could potentially lower vegetable and high-value crop costs for consumers by 10 percent to 15 percent.

For example, the national post-harvest loss rate for rice has been 15 percent to 16.5 percent of the total production. This results in an annual loss of about 342,000 to 450,000 metric tons of rice, valued at over P7 billion.

But there has been some good news.

The “star performer” of the past year was the poultry industry.

“Production, driven by impressive broiler output, grew by 9.1 percent because many Filipinos find chicken and eggs to be a more affordable source of protein compared to other meats like pork and beef. This growth remained robust even as farmers dealt with rising feed costs and the threat of bird flu.”

Some Philippine farm export products are winning again, the report points out. Coconut production rose to 14.5 million metric tons, allowing the country to reclaim its spot as the world’s second-largest exporter. High global prices for coconut oil helped export revenues soar by nearly 40 percent.

Tropical fruits also saw a major rebound. Banana shipments rose by 26 percent, making the Philippines the world’s second-largest exporter once more, trailing only Ecuador. Similarly, pineapple exports grew by 14 percent due to a surge in demand from China.

An agriculture expert from UP Los Baños told me that agriculture can still be productive during El Niño if proper planning and responses are done by the DA.

El Niño, he said, can be a boon to orchards like mango, avocado, durian and pineapple. These plants do not need an enormous water supply. Pump irrigation can supply the water these plants need.

The agri expert said: “I remember a Del Monte official telling me that they had such a bountiful harvest of high-quality pineapples during the last El Niño that struck Mindanao.”

There is a science in agriculture to deal with El Niño. The problem is we don’t have respected agri scientists among the top officials of DA.

“If you appoint lawyers to key positions, expect debates on the legal aspect of policy or regulation. Their training is not suited for development undertakings,” the agri expert told me.

He continued: “Have you come across an analysis of rice trading policy and responses, based on solid empirical and time-series data coming from the DA? Have you seen an analysis of the possible impact of El Niño on rice producing areas and what needs to be done?”

It has always bugged me why we are lagging in agriculture even if the best agricultural school in the region and the International Rice Research Institute are in Los Baños.

Sometimes I wonder if we are hopeless.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco