More uncertainty

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January 7, 2026 | 12:00am

If we thought our economy was going to be bad this year as a consequence of the floodgate corruption and political maneuvering against the administration of President Marcos, well, better brace yourselves because there is now even more uncertainty, and our economy may be in for a deeper dive than we initially thought following the Jan. 3 move of our strongest political ally, the United States, to interfere in Venezuela’s sovereignty.

It is a political and economic maneuver that has far-reaching geopolitical risks and consequences, especially for us and our region, which faces a similar sovereignty dynamic between our immediate neighbor Taiwan and global powerhouse China.

Just recently, China conducted military drills around Taiwan to highlight how easily and quickly it can seize control over the island nation if it wishes to do so.

To complicate matters even more, we face our own dispute with China over our rich marine, and perhaps oil and gas resources, that they are also trying to lay claim over.

Rep. Leila de Lima had criticized the move of the US, warning that it was a violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty.

The ouster and arrest of Venezuela’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, and President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US will take over the resource rich South American country, De Lima said, “throw the global order back to a barbaric ‘might makes right’ regime... discarding all the progress achieved by the United Nations 80 years after the end of World War II.”

De Lima lamented that “the attack on Venezuela and abduction of President Maduro undermines the rules-based international order, thus setting a terrible precedent of heightened aggression by superpowers.”

It is a dangerous threat that could be unleashed by China over Taiwan and part of our own territory, and in Europe – by Russia over Ukraine, as some political analysts are pointing out.

De lima also said that due to the Philippines’ alliance with the US, we now have a weakened moral position when it comes to challenging Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea.

“This reflects poorly on us as well, regardless of our own faithful adherence to international law, simply because the US is our ally,” she said.

We have been carefully and peacefully dealing with China all these years, maintaining cultural and economic ties, especially with our own Filipino-Chinese business community working hard to do business as usual.

China, however, has previously turned some economic screws against us by influencing the shift of Chinese tourists to our ASEAN neighbors and to Japan as a result of our territorial dispute — a similar move which China also just recently made against Japan over its Prime Minister’s expression of support for Taiwan that immediately resulted in the cancellation of several Chinese tour groups to the Land of the Rising Sun.

Hopefully, China, which has been acting more like the grown up since President Trump’s tariff tantrum last year, will take a more pragmatic approach as the Asian region has posted better economic stability and growth than the US and Europe.

However, China and Russia have been strategically affected by the US move to control the oil resources of Venezuela, and it thus puts the world on edge over how these three world leaders will resolve their dispute and or grievances, as we – mere pawns – brace for the impact on our own economies.

The Philippines is already limping from a decline in foreign investments and foreign tourists. We are also highly dependent on imports and on our overseas Filipino workers who are basically saving our economy from tanking with their remittances.

As a peaceful island nation, we hope that we can skillfully and peacefully co-exist in our global community.

Perhaps our government should now focus on truly achieving self-sufficiency in achieving our economic goals – on improving our agriculture sector and finally allowing corporate farming in the face of aging farmers and a disinterested young population that does not want to become farmers and instead prefer the safety of a salaried occupation.

The DOT is hoping that the Philippines’ hosting of ASEAN 2026 will boost foreign tourist arrival figures and inflows this year, even as the government must also allocate precious funds to welcome and entertain our ASEAN neighbors who are doing so much better in attracting tourists to their shores.

No less than Boo Chanco, my esteemed fellow columnist in the business section, has lauded Malaysia as a tourist destination that offers a better and cheaper travel experience — an assessment echoed by other friends who were recently in Kuala Lumpur.

Of course, among the factors keeping tourists away from the Philippines which the government must earnestly address is the lack of vital infrastructure connectivity — from air, to sea, to land travel. The top complaint of foreigners is the difficulty of getting to the various island destinations, the lack of seamless connectivity, leading to overall higher cost and discomfort and crucially safety from criminal elements.

And therein lies the rub. The government must truly clamp down on criminality and corruption, one of the political factors that is also destabilizing the current administration.