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MANILA, Philippines — Some Duterte-aligned candidates fell short of breaking into the winning circle, missing the top 12 in Pulse Asia’s latest pre-election survey released Monday, May 5.
Two incumbent senators, however, known for their longstanding support and collaboration with former President Rodrigo Duterte, have retained their spots in the top five.
The Pulso ng Bayan survey, conducted from April 20 to 24 with 2,400 Filipino adult respondents nationwide, showed that 14 out of 64 senatorial candidates have a statistical chance of winning.
With just a week left before election day, Pulse Asia said those with the highest chances of securing Senate seats are mostly former or incumbent legislators backed by the Marcos Jr. administration, or running under the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas banner.
A few candidates from PDP-Laban — the party endorsed by the Duterte family — landed within the top five. These include incumbent Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa.
Go topped the survey with 62.2% voter support, while Dela Rosa placed fourth with 41%, though his numbers suggest he could finish anywhere between second and fourth on election day.
No longer in the top 12. Rep. Rodante Marcoleta (Sagip Party-list) and Phillip Salvador previously held a statistical chance of placing between 11th and 18th, with support ranging from 28.3% to 30.9%, according to Pulse Asia’s Ulat ng Bayan survey conducted from March 23 to 29.
However, in the April survey, support for Marcoleta dropped to 23% and for Salvador to 23.7%, placing them between 14th and 18th, outside the winning circle.
Sen. Imee Marcos is also close to the bottom, with 24.7% support, and may place between 14th and 18th, similar to Marcoleta and Salvador. Her numbers have been steadily declining since the February pre-election polls.
Most Alyansa bets still in the circle
Meanwhile, posting numbers close to Dela Rosa are Rep. Erwin Tulfo (ACT-CIS Party-list) with 42.4% and former Sen. Tito Sotto with 41.1%, both of whom are endorsed by the administration.
In earlier months, Tulfo consistently ranked first in pre-election preference surveys, with little to no change in his numbers. He garnered 62.8% support in Pulse Asia’s January survey.
It wasn’t until the last week of February — just after Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment — that Go’s ratings surged to 58.1%, overtaking Tulfo as the latter’s numbers began to dip to 56.6%.
By the March survey, Tulfo’s numbers had declined further to 51.1%, while Go’s continued to climb, reaching 61.9%.
No other Duterte-aligned candidates received enough support from respondents to statistically secure a chance into the top 12. In contrast, six other Alyansa-backed candidates remain within the winning circle.
These include incumbent Senators Bong Revilla (35.6%) and Pia Cayetano (29.9%); former Senators Lito Lapid (32.2%), Ping Lacson (33.8%) and Manny Pacquiao (28.3%); as well as Makati Mayor Abby Binay (30.2%).
Bam holds onto 11th
On the opposition’s side, only former Sen. Bam Aquino secured a statistical chance of winning a Senate seat, with a projected ranking between 11th and 18th. He garnered 25.4% support in the April survey — slightly down from 28.6% in March and 26.4% in February.
His duo, former Sen. Kiko Pangilinan, received support from 19.8% of respondents, likely placing between 17th and 19th. He previously performed better in Pulse Asia’s February survey, with 25% support and a forecast ranking of 15th to 17th.
No 'Villar' in Cebu speech
Rep. Camille Villar (Las Piñas, Lone District), who is still supposedly part of the Alyansa ticket, received 28.3% support in the latest national survey, a slight decrease from the 29% she garnered in March.
Marcos, meanwhile, failed to mention Villar in his campaign rally speech for the second time in a row, this time at a sortie in Cebu in the presence of Gov. Gwen Garcia.
Throughout the campaign period, the president would mention his senatorial picks grouped by their qualifications. He would most often mention together former and incumbent senators, representatives and Cabinet officials.
Similar to his previous speech in Batangas, Marcos did not name Villar.
“Mayroon din po [kandidatong] nanggaling sa House of Representatives. Subok na po sa Batasan. Nandiyan po, naging congressman: Congressman Abalos, Congressman Binay, Congressman Cayetano. Congressman Pacquiao, at si Congressman Tulfo,” Marcos said in Cebu.
(We have candidates that came from the House of Representatives. Tested in Congress. Here are our Congressmen: Congressman Abalos, Congressman Binay, Congressman Cayetano. Congressman Pacquiao, and Congressman Tulfo.)
Villar, however, was mentioned at the Lucena, Quezon rally on May 2, moments after Malacañang announced it would investigate complaints of water service interruptions in Bulacan where a Villar-run company is a water concessionaire.
Following former president Duterte's detention at the International Criminal Court, Villar has also skipped several Alyansa sorties.
