OCTA presidential survey: Tight race seen in 2028

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April 28, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Sara Duterte is poised to win the presidency even in a one-on-one matchup with incumbent Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, according to results of a survey conducted by OCTA Research.

But according to OCTA Research, which conducted the survey last month, the number of undecided voters could make that hypothetical scenario competitive.

Based on the survey results released yesterday, 46 percent of the respondents prefer Duterte over Robredo in a head-to-head presidential matchup.

Thirty-five percent said they would vote for Robredo, while 19 percent were undecided.

“VP Duterte consistently led Mayor Robredo in comparable head-to-head matchups by margins ranging from roughly 20 to 30 percentage points. Against that backdrop, the narrower margin recorded in the first quarter of 2026 indicates that the contest has become more competitive entering 2026,” OCTA said in its report.

“VP Duterte remains ahead, but the current margin suggests a less dominant and more competitive race than previously observed. The contest remains favorable to VP Duterte, but the present configuration points to a more polarized and more structurally contested electoral environment,” it added.

OCTA conducted another presidential preference survey last month, but this time with names of 26 potential presidential contenders.

In that poll, 33 percent of the respondents said they would support Duterte if the elections were held during the survey period, while 21 percent backed Robredo.

The one-on-one polling indicates that 13 percent of the voters would shift their support to Duterte, while another 14 percent would back Robredo if their original preferences do not run for higher office.

“The 19 percent undecided vote remains politically significant. Nearly one in five respondents remain uncommitted, indicating that a substantial segment of the electorate remains movable,” OCTA said.

“This suggests that while the broad structure of the race is already visible, the current margin remains contestable and still open to movement as candidate positioning, alliances, campaign visibility and national conditions evolve,” it added.

Duterte has announced her intention to run for higher office, while Robredo made it clear in recent interviews – made after the survey period – that she does not plan on running for a national post in 2028.

A number of allies are hoping that she would change her mind. OCTA’s non-commissioned Tugon ng Masa survey had 1,200 respondents and a margin of error of plus/minus three percent.

2028 out of mind

Meanwhile, President Marcos is not thinking of the 2028 presidential elections at this time as his focus is on the government’s response to the Middle East crisis, Malacañang said yesterday.

“In the President’s view, it is too early to talk about who will run for president in the next election,” Presidential Communications Undersecretary Claire Castro said in Filipino when asked to comment on Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo’s statement that she is not running for president in 2028.

“The President is focused on work, especially on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, so as to ensure steady supply of petroleum products to our country. The President is not focused on politics right now. Duty first,” Castro said.

Castro said she has no information yet when asked if the President is talking to possible administration bets.

In an interview in February, Marcos said the administration is already talking to potential candidates for the presidency in 2028.

Marcos said the next president should be someone who “understands economics,” a nation-builder who “wants to make the Philippines better” and a leader who is competent, who listens to experts and who loves the country.

Marcos did not mention names, although he noted that it would be more difficult to field someone with no experience in politics.

Also in February, Marcos’ former ally, Vice President Sara Duterte announced her candidacy for the 2028 presidential polls. — Helen Flores