[OPINION] Election myths and why media and polling matter

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While various views as extreme as conspiracies are peddled in virtually all societies that hold contentious exercises like elections, the role that news media and polling firms play in realizing public sentiments is crucial especially today when information is gold

Independent journalism and science-backed polling enhance the quality of information that the public needs to deliberate on critical issues such as elections and governance.

The results of the volatile 2025 midterm elections have surprised many observers and political candidates to the extent that some of them felt empowered to proclaim that they are right and the opposing side was wrong all along. Worst, they have devised ambiguous and mythical views that, deliberately or not, further confuse the public understanding of politics (note that “magulo” or chaotic is the prominent descriptive word that describes Philippine politics, according to a February 2025 Pulse Asia survey).

While various views as extreme as conspiracies are peddled in virtually all societies that hold contentious exercises like elections, the role that news media and polling firms play in realizing public sentiments is crucial especially today when information is gold.

Myth one: The voters did not know who to vote for.

This view is partly true.

It is correct that many voters decided who to vote for as senators only during the last minute of the elections. A May 2025 survey of Pulse Asia found that 25% of voters (or 17 million out of 68 million registered voters) decided a day before the election day, while 11% (or 7.5 million) on the voting day itself. The 24.5 million voters, the firm said, were potentially open to last-minute changes as to who to support on election day.

Yet there were early indicators that can help explain what voters considered important when choosing their political candidates.

Voters were looking for candidates whose concerns are to make basic goods and services affordable (53% of voters), upgrade the healthcare system (50%), strengthen agriculture and secure a stable food supply (47%), expand job opportunities (41%), and address poverty and hunger (38%), based on an OCTA survey in April 2025. Coupled with consistent messaging and effective campaigning strategies, among others, the list of concerns would have given us a sense of why Senator Kiko Pangilinan’s platform on agriculture and food stability resonated well with voters.

Myth two: The midterm elections were a big win for the Dutertes, giving a free pass for former President Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President Sara Duterte.

This belief is misleading.

The midterm election results showed that the Duterte political clan continues to enjoy a solid base of local support, particularly in its bailiwick of Davao City.

But it is inaccurate and presumptuous to conclude that the election outcome was overwhelmingly favorable to the Dutertes. In the Senate, only three of the newly elected 12 senators are hardline pro-Duterte to date. In Bohol province, all candidates endorsed by Vice President Duterte lost the elections, not to mention the suspension of the proclamation of Duterte Youth at the House of Representatives.

If we go by the numbers, the Dutertes did not achieve an overwhelming win in the Senate race, and therefore there is no definitive proof that the vice president is off the hook in the upcoming impeachment trial. Lest we forget, the qualitative momentum appears to back the two returning liberal senators whose commitment to support the agriculture and education sectors must be closely watched.

Myth three: It is the Marcoses versus the Dutertes all the way to the 2028 national elections.

This idea is simply mistaken.

The liberal senators seized a significant opening as they did not only plainly win but clinched the second and fifth spots in a 66-way senatorial race (they are positioning themselves as independents, not as liberal oppositionists as some had hoped). Akbayan Party, which rallied behind the two senators and has been an oppositionist to the Dutertes and the Marcoses, likewise scored big for garnering 2.8 million votes and securing three party-list seats at the House of Representatives.

The triumph of Senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan and Akbayan Party is not only a vote against the Dutertes and the Marcoses, but a crystal-clear expression of how serious and engaging democratic politics should be. This means that simply riding on a showbusiness celebrity status and dancing on stage during campaign sorties will not work this time.

Although an earlier survey identified Vice President Duterte as a potential leading presidential candidate in the 2028 elections, the volatility of the 2025 midterm elections is a sign that change and to some extent sudden shifts remain the permanent game in electoral politics.

This is not to belittle the political machine of the pro-Duterte blocs such as that of former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s and Senator Imee Marcos’s. But consolidation of such blocs, it should be clear by now, is gaining ground not only within the Duterte and the Marcos-Romualdez camps, but perhaps also among independents and a great deal of undecided, non-politically aligned voters.

Things would have been much less mythical — and not superficial at all — had we paid closer attention to independent media reporting and scientific polling.

As a way forward, we should be wary of politicians who evade media questioning, much so of those who are belligerent to news media. It is a bad omen too if politicians conveniently dismiss surveys when the results do not go their way.

We must support institutions that provide quality information at a time when politics is getting more antidemocratic and toxic. – Rappler.com

Jefferson Lyndon D. Ragragio is Assistant Professor of Media Studies at the Department of Science Communication, University of the Philippines Los Baños and Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, University of Michigan.