Over 100 Chinese posts falsely claim military split with Marcos after Senate shooting

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MANILA, Philippines — A false claim that the Armed Forces of the Philippines broke with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. after the May 13 shooting at the Senate has spread across Chinese-language platforms in near-identical wording, appearing on news portals, video sites and content aggregator accounts that otherwise had little to no record of covering Philippine affairs.

From May 15 to May 26, the claim that the military had "distanced" itself from Marcos or "cut ties" with his administration appeared in at least 127 articles and videos on 11 Chinese-language platforms, Philstar.com’s analysis shows. The posts appeared in Baidu’s Baijiahao and Haokan, Sohu, NetEase's 163.com, ifeng/Phoenix, Weibo, WeChat, Toutiao, Douyin, TikTok, Xigua and Bilibili. 

The earliest items in the scan appeared two days after the Senate shooting. Similar posts continued to surface until May 26, suggesting a rolling spread rather than a single viral post. 

Many of the articles and videos used near-identical wording. On Baidu alone, 65 indexed videos carried variations of a single Chinese-language headline: “Gunshots ring out! Marcos Jr.’s fate is sealed; the Philippine military urgently cuts ties; China-Philippines relations may see a turning point.” 

The wording shifted slightly across platforms — “urgently cuts ties,” “quickly cuts ties,” “pulls away” or “takes a step back” — but the main claim stayed the same: The military was supposedly abandoning Marcos after the Senate incident. 

The AFP did not break with Marcos, but even the presence of Marines at the Senate was recast in Chinese-language posts as proof it was withdrawing from the Marcos administration.

A day after the gunfire incident, AFP chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. clarified that Marines stationed at the Senate were there for security and not to arrest Sen. Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa, a former national police chief and Duterte ally wanted by the International Criminal Court over alleged crimes against humanity linked to the Duterte administration’s drug war.  

Marcos also said in a video statement the night of May 13 that no arrest order had been issued and explained why Marines were on the premises.

But one May 15 article on the military subsection of Sohu, a popular Chinese media platform, framed the AFP’s clarification as the military “taking a big step back,” showing Marcos no longer had power or control over them.  

"The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) categorically denies malicious claims circulating on Chinese platforms regarding a supposed rift or ‘severing of ties’ between the military and President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. following the Senate gunfire incident,” AFP spokesperson  Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad told Philstar.com in a message on May 27.

The narratives

Philstar.com found the posts built around four recurring frames: Marcos was losing control, the military was pulling away, the Duterte camp was gaining ground and China-Philippines relations could improve. 

The military frame was the most persistent. All of the Chinese-language articles and videos claimed that Marcos’ political power was waning and that he was losing the support of the military. 

The phrase "Marcos Jr.'s fate is sealed" appeared in the title or body of most videos.

A May 17 Weibo post by an account named "Pen Backbone," made the claim: "When an army's guns no longer obey the president's commands, Marcos Jr.'s foundation of governance is already shaky.”

A May 15 article on web portal 163.com by a user named "Fangfang's History Roundup," said the “Philippine military has been very shrewd” and prefers “[not to] take sides blindly; if they choose the wrong side and the political situation changes, they will become the victims.”

Several posts used analytical-sounding language to make the claim appear more authoritative. They described the incident as a “collapse” of Marcos’ political control, a failure in the “top-down transmission” of power or a sign of “structural cracks” in his administration.

Many posts tied the Senate shooting to the Marcos-Duterte feud. Several posts portrayed the May 13 incident as a failed move by Marcos to use the impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte and the ICC warrant involving dela Rosa against the Duterte camp, which they claimed had emerged stronger from the confrontation.  

Other posts linked the Senate mayhem to the West Philippine Sea, saying Marcos’ supposed weakening could force a shift away from his more confrontational China policy and create an opening for improved ties with Beijing. 

One article took the geopolitical claim further. The shooting "may also be the countdown to a reshuffling of the entire South China Sea geopolitical landscape,” wrote the user named “????,” or "Laughing at History's Mists.”

Philstar.com’s scan showed several versions appeared on accounts that mainly post broad international affairs, history or military commentary. Some accounts, however, had little visible history of covering Philippine politics before the Senate shooting.