PredictIt Announces a Resolution to Litigation with the CFTC and a Bright Future Ahead

WASHINGTON, July 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PredictIt is pleased to announce the favorable resolution of its nearly three-year-long litigation challenging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s historical efforts to close the PredictIt Market. As part of the resolution, the CFTC amended its No-Action Letter (NAL) to permit transition of the Market’s leadership to a respected consortium of academics from America’s most prestigious institutions. As the second part of the resolution, the United States District Court for the Western District of Texas entered final judgment in favor of PredictIt on Tuesday, July 22. That court order declares invalid the CFTC’s prior efforts and justifications for seeking to end the PredictIt Market. It also bars the CFTC from future efforts to close the Market based on its current structure and features.

Together, these two pillars of the resolution lay a stable foundation for the PredictIt Market’s future. With the historical efforts to end the Market having been declared illegal and the judgment’s protections against future such efforts, Market participants may trade political event contracts on the Market, and the academic community may plan study of Market data, with confidence.

As a sign of the progress and energy created by this resolution framework, PredictIt already has offered a series of new political event prediction markets and will continue to do so in the days ahead. These markets long have served as a valuable tool for public insight, academic research, and civic engagement.

We extend our sincere thanks to Acting Chair Caroline Pham for her leadership, constructive engagement, and support for responsible innovation. Her openness has helped clear the path for regulatory clarity and stability in this in this important field.

"With this resolution, PredictIt can continue doing what it does best-bringing transparency and insight to the political process through data-driven forecasting,” said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of PredictIt operator Aristotle. "We’re grateful to our community of traders, academics, and supporters for standing by us. The future for prediction markets has never looked brighter.”

"It was a long struggle to vindicate the rights of traders and academics to participate in the PredictiIt Market and to the invaluable information it provides about the most important political issues facing the Nation,” said Michael Edney, the lawyer representing the Market’s operators, traders, and academics in court. "Today’s outcome comes after crucial judicial decisions, including two from the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, setting forth these protections. We are grateful to the courts and to the Commission’s current leadership for restoring stability to this national resource.”

PredictIt looks to the future with optimism. We remain committed to transparency, compliance, and expanding participation in political forecasting through fair and accessible markets.

A new chapter begins today-and we’re just getting started.

Contact: 

Brandi Travis

+12707042462

[email protected]