Severe congestion in elementary schools in NCR, Calabarzon, Region 12, Barmm

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THE Second Congressional Commission on Education (Edcom 2) underscored critical findings from the discussion paper, "Low fertility, [aging] buildings and school congestion in the Philippines: Tailwinds, headwinds and some policy options," released by the Philippine Institute of Development Studies.

While the nation's declining fertility rate offers a potential "tailwind" to ease classroom congestion, the study reveals that areas such as the National Capital Region (NCR) and Regions 4A, 12 and Barmm, continue to face severe and persistent challenges from infrastructure backlogs and aging school buildings, demanding highly targeted interventions.

The paper — PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2025-10 — released in June 2025, projects a general decline in total national public school enrollment across most regions until 2040, and potentially until 2060, driven by a reduced fertility rate. However, Barmm stands out as an exception, where the population of school-age children is projected to continue increasing, leading to increased public school enrollment.

CONGESTION PROBLEM The study reveals a detailed spatial analysis of classroom congestion, highlighting that, in 2021, divisions within the NCR, Region 4A, Region 12 and Barmm exhibited higher median student-classroom ratios in elementary compared to the rest of the country. IMAGE FROM EDCOM 2

Meanwhile, in NCR, as much as 90 percent of public elementary school students in the Northern Manila District were enrolled in congested schools (with at least a 1:50 classroom-student ratio). This was closely followed by Southern Manila District, comprising the cities of Las Pinas, Makati, Muntinlupa, Paranaque, Pasay, Pateros and Taguig (76.8 percent), Eastern Manila District, comprised of Mandaluyong, Marikina, Pasig, Quezon City and San Juan (60.1 percent). Above-average levels of congestion were also observed in the provinces of Rizal (66.0 percent) and Cavite (57.7 percent).

The study also identified that the majority of the classroom deficit was concentrated on the elementary level, followed by junior high school and senior high school.

Projecting population growth rate data until 2040, the study found that student-classroom ratios would remain highest in NCR and surrounding provinces for both elementary and secondary in the next 15 years. The same was expected in Cebu, Occidental Mindoro, Barmm and Soccsksargen.

Even with fewer births, the Philippines could still lack 58,000 to 81,000 classrooms by 2040 if no new ones are built after 2021. The study highlights that while addressing congestion through school building programs is critical, the Department of Education (DepEd) must also factor in the wear and tear of existing buildings. Where, investments in new classrooms have often only been sufficient to replace dilapidated facilities rather than expanding the overall stock, thus failing to keep pace with enrollment increases.

A significant proportion of public school rooms are beyond their estimated useful life with projections showing only 18.6 percent of 2023 public school rooms will remain in good condition by 2040 without new construction or repairs. The Philippines' vulnerability to disasters also necessitates substantial repair or condemnation of school infrastructure, even newly built ones.

"As DepEd ramps up efforts to address the accumulated backlog of 165,000 classrooms, it is imperative to take into consideration four factors: population growth rate, vulnerability to disasters, projected wear-and-tear of existing facilities and available private school capacity within the community," explained Karol Mark Yee, Edcom 2 Executive Director.

"By looking at these factors collectively, we can diversify our interventions in addressing school congestion, break down silos in resourcing and ensure that our efforts directly support improvement of learning outcomes of our students," he continued.

"We cannot go about our business-as-usual approach to address the country's classroom shortage. We need to be innovative in implementing multiple solutions," said Edcom 2 Co-chairman Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian.

"One strategy that I have been pushing is the implementation of a counterpart program, where local government units and the national government share the cost of constructing new classrooms. This way we can have several LGUs building classrooms simultaneously," he added.

Sen. Gatchalian also proposes tapping public-private partnerships (PPP) and expanding the Government Assistance to Students and Teachers in Private Education to help ease congestion in public schools

Edcom 2 Co-chairman Rep. Roman Romulo, in a previous interview, also flagged the issue.

"When it comes to class congestion, double shifting really won't work — it's just too exhausting. It's draining. And the available technology still isn't enough to provide a good alternative mode of learning. We either need to intensify classroom construction or expand the voucher system," he said in Filipino.

DepEd Secretary Sonny Angara, a former commissioner of Edcom 2, had earlier stated that the department may pursue a proposed PPP to fast-track the construction of 105,000 classrooms. The proposed PPP comes in response to a government report that it may take 55 years to resolve the classroom shortage.