Stranger things

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No, this is not about the popular Netflix series which I have not gotten around to watching.

In fact, this is about the real geopolitical and economic series playing out in the world starring no less than the US President.

I was actually in the process last night of writing a column about the growth prospects of the Philippines following a briefing by the ASEAN +3 Macroeconomic Research Office Wednesday morning.

However, after watching with a mixture of fascination and disbelief the more than hour-long rambling speech of the US President at Davos, I could not help but acknowledge that the whole world has been living in a “Stranger Things” scenario, minus perhaps the sci-fi elements but complete with all the strange things we are seeing and hearing from the leader of a once respected global power.

I never thought I would see the day that America would turn inward and push away its allies and no longer champion the right of other countries to govern themselves and be independent to run their own economies.

It also came as a shock how quickly the new US leader diminished global institutions that once governed global trade and has now wielded tariffs as a weapon to demand acquiescence for whatever he demands.

To me, America was the ideal, supporting freedom of choice and welcoming all, defending countries that are floundering and falling into strongman rule.

Filipinos of my generation eagerly studied and sought their future in the US, the land of milk and honey, of promise and a brighter future. Little brown Americans.

I never thought that the new American leader would be so dismissive of other countries, their aspirations and their people and that it could act in total disregard of other nations and would now dare to openly say that it must acquire an independent country for security purposes. That was something that only Russia did.

The Philippines is likewise an island nation and could just as easily fall prey to a much larger nation that would like to lay claim to our resources for a similar reason.

In the past, we ourselves were among those countries whose leader was called a dictator.

Well, the world is round after all. It can actually happen to other democratic countries too.

So, what is happening to our country is no longer strange.

In fact, we can now welcome Americans to our reality.

Government officials acting like they are not subject to the same rules as ordinary people, intimidation of members of the press and withholding key economic data, meddling with the independence of economic institutions and even the use of government forces to subdue independent protest.

Definitely not the America we once knew.

This is the new ugly American. Immigration officers now free to enter one’s abode and drag half-clad US citizens suspected of being illegal immigrants and, even after finding out they are legitimate naturalized citizens, return them to their home without an apology.

I had been monitoring global events in Singapore during my recent vacation and was saddened that we are now living in a topsy-turvy world that may no longer be rules based and instead subject to the whims of global strongmen.

The speech of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos described it best, “the rupture in the world order, the end of a nice story and the beginning of a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any constraints.”

Likewise, he said, “the rules-based order is fading. That the strong can do what they can and the weak must suffer what they must.”

On the other hand, I have just left a truly admirable island nation that has shown and continues to show the world how a small former British colony, led by a principled and disciplined strongman, in just 60 years has transformed its island nation to become among the top high-income countries and a true showcase of enlightened governance that serves, respects and benefits its people.

In turn, its people reflect that respect by adhering to the government ideals that have led to prosperity and a disciplined independence.

It is also strange now to see China emerging as the adult on the global stage even though it still sometimes acts like a bully.

Thus, a new global order is being reshaped and alliances are shifting, a development that our own government has to carefully navigate.

Unfortunately, as noted by economists of AMRO, the Philippines is not benefiting from the shifting global structure in terms of investments.

Even though the US is our strongest ally, we have not seen or benefited from US investments. Instead, our alliance with our big brother has alienated us from our Chinese neighbor with whom we are also in dispute over our territorial waters.

Europe has always had difficulty in engaging more closely with us because of the distance.

Regrettably, our ASEAN neighbor Vietnam, which was once torn apart by its French colonial masters and the US, has managed to leave us in the dust and is now posting much higher growth and attracting more foreign investments than us.

According to AMRO’s projection, Vietnam’s growth last year will likely hit eight percent, much higher than the original target of 7.1 percent for 2025.

For 2026, AMRO projects that Vietnam’s growth will slow slightly to 7.6 percent.

Growth projections by AMRO for the Philippines, on the other hand, have been revised downward to 5.2 percent for the past year from the revised growth projection of 5.6 percent.

For this year, AMRO now projects growth to reach 5.3 percent, down from its previous projection of growth in 2026 of 5.5 percent.

Unfortunately, with the strange developments that continue to unfold on the global stage, good luck to us.