Tony Blair Institute warns against AI isolationism

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The Philippine Star

February 11, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — Pursuing AI isolationist policies to protect sovereignty would be a mistake for most countries, according to the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

‘Sovereignty in the Age of AI,’ published today by the former British Prime Minister’s Institute, argues that no country can be fully sovereign on AI – and that attempts to have complete control over its infrastructure risk weakening, rather than strengthening, national power.

The report is co-authored by Hilda Barasa, PeiChin Tay, Keegan McBride, Alexander Iosad and Jakob Mökander, who have advised governments across multiple continents, with a foreword written by Tony Blair.

Frontier AI development is increasingly concentrated among a small number of firms and countries, with costs and energy demands beyond the reach of most states. However, as the technology grows in geopolitical and economic importance, failing to access and deploy AI presents a major threat to economic development, public services and global competitiveness.

Today’s report warns that responding to this reality with isolationist approaches, such as attempts to build fully sovereign AI stacks from chips to frontier models, is too slow, too expensive and, for most countries, unachievable. More importantly, such strategies could cut countries off from the most advanced AI capabilities, undermining economic competitiveness, public-service delivery and national security.

The authors argue that sovereignty in the age of AI is instead about agency, not maintaining total control and independence. Every country can make strategic decisions about where to build domestic strength, where to shape markets and standards, and where to rely on trusted partners.

For example, energy-rich countries may wish to leverage cheap electricity to attract the development of new data centers, and countries with strong talent pipelines and pro-innovation regulatory frameworks could become hubs for model development or AI services.

The paper calls for a more realistic and strategic approach that embraces managed interdependence while expanding national agility.

In his foreword to the paper, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said:

“No state can dominate every layer of the AI stack. Leaders must make deliberate choices about where they want to build strength and influence. And by becoming indispensable in?specific?parts of the AI ecosystem?– whether in data assets, specialized models, regulatory standards, energy?capacity?or talent pipelines –?countries gain leverage across it, even if they do not control it all.

“Countries that treat AI as a central pillar of their national purpose, deploying?it widely and negotiating?their place in the global ecosystem with clarity and ambition,?will not see their sovereignty eroded. They will renew it for a new age.”?

To help governments navigate these choices, the paper proposes a new ‘Control, Steer, Depend’ framework for exercising agency in an interdependent AI ecosystem.

The framework acknowledges that governments need direct control over certain critical systems, such as sensitive data or mission-critical public-sector applications, in addition to country-specific strengths such as research capabilities or clean energy that that can be leveraged for export.

In some areas, they can steer outcomes through regulation, procurement, standards and partnerships. ?And where dependence on?external providers?is unavoidable — particularly?for frontier capabilities?—?they?can?depend?in ways that are negotiated, diversified and resilient,?avoiding?excessive concentration and?vendor lock-in.??

By deliberately and strategically balancing which parts of the stack they will control, steer and depend on, nations can maintain their sovereignty and sphere of influence without building a fully sovereign AI ecosystem.

PeiChin Tay, senior policy advisor for Government Innovation at the Tony Blair Institute and one of the paper’s authors, said:

“AI sovereignty is often misunderstood as technological self-sufficiency. In reality, it is about whether governments retain the agency to make deliberate choices in an AI ecosystem that is inherently interdependent.”

The real risk for sovereignty today is not reliance on global technology, but exclusion from it. Countries that cannot access and deploy frontier AI will find their economic and governing capacity steadily eroded.”