Top 10 developments in coal, nuclear and grid modernization in 2025

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Here is my list, the first six are international, the last four are national news and developments.

One, global coal generation keeps rising despite continuing anti-fossil fuel narratives. Coal generation in terawatt-hours (TWh) increased from 3,748 in 1985 to 7,361 in 2005, 9,418 in 2015, 10,613 in 2024 and is projected to be flat at a similar level in 2025. China remains the most coal-intensive country in the world, from only 261 TWh in 1985 to 1,980 in 2005, 4,046 in 2015 and 5,828 in 2024.

Two, the UK has the fastest coal phaseout, from a high of 210 TWh in 1987 down to 136 in 2007, only 1.9 in 2024 and zero in 2025 after shutting down its last coal plant in September 2024. Japan’s JERA Co. is transitioning one of its coal units with 1,000 MW capacity into ammonia co-generation.

Three, global nuclear generation increased then flattened. From 370 TWh in 1975 to 2,322 in 1995, 2,768 in 2010 before the Fukushima tsunami incident, 2,818 in 2024 and is projected to remain at the same level in 2025. The US remains the largest nuclear power producer, from 182 TWh in 1975 to 823 in 2005 and flat at 823 in 2024. The biggest surprise is the United Arab Emirates, from zero until 2019 to 41 in 2024 and projected at 43 TWh in 2025.

Four, small modular reactors (SMRs) have become prominent in 2025 as future co-located power suppliers of energy-intensive data centers in many countries.

Five, global grid and transmission stability became more critical as more intermittent solar-wind energy is added yearly to the grid. The State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC), the world’s largest transmission company, has invested some $89 billion in 2025 alone for its “New Type Power System” grid modernization program including Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) expansion.

Six, pumped hydro storage (PHS) plants have become major ancillary service providers in grid stabilization. The Fengning PHS plant in China is the world’s largest with 3,600 MW capacity (300 MW x 12 units) and became fully operational in 2024. I saw it last March in an infrastructure observation tour of Beijing-Hebei. Huge, modern, very wide upper and lower dam storage. I also saw so many road tunnels going in and out of Beijing, excluding tunnels for trains. I also took China’s high speed train running at 350 kph, faster than Japan’s Shinkansen, very impressive. High speed trains with heavy loads and many passengers mean high power demand, at least 10 MW per train with its long cars.

Seven, Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan (CBK, 797 MW) PHS privatization last July. The CBK plant in Laguna is the Philippines’ largest PHS, and the winning bid was awarded by PSALM to the consortium of Aboitiz Power and Sumitomo Corp. for P36 billion.

In mid-2025, the DOE had already awarded 6,100 MW of PHS under the third Green Energy Auction (GEA-3), making PHS a crowded business. But the 6,100 MW awarded PHS projects have high guaranteed prices for 20 years, some above P5/kWh.

Eight, last July the Atimonan One-Energy (A1E) coal power project was reaffirmed by the Department of Energy (DOE) as a committed project even before the greenfield coal moratorium policy in 2020. The 1,200 MW plant is an ultra-supercritical plant in Quezon using High Efficiency Low Emission (HELE) technology.

Meanwhile, the Philippines’ largest coal plant, GN Power Dinginin (GNPD, 1,336 MW) in Mariveles, Bataan, has generated some 10,100 GWh of electricity in 2024, more than double the combined generation of all solar plus wind plants nationwide of 5,050 GWh that year. GNPD output in 2025 is projected to be at a similar level to last year.

Nine, two big nuclear energy conferences were held in the Philippines, the Meralco “Giga Summit 2025” last April and the DOE’s second “Philippines International Nuclear Supply Chain Forum 2025.” Meralco launched its “Nuclear Energy Strategic Transition” (NEST) program as its flagship initiative to incorporate nuclear power into the Philippine energy mix.

At the DOE conference, they elaborated on the Nuclear Energy Program Inter-Agency Committee (NEP-IAC) work moving from preparatory activities to implementation-ready frameworks so that the Philippines will have its first operational nuclear power plant by 2032.

Ten, higher ancillary services from more intermittent renewables led to higher ancillary costs now around P0.62/kWh, higher than the actual transmission charge of about P0.55/kWh that already includes under-recoveries of NGCP’s Maximum Allowable Revenue (MAR) from 2016-2022.

The endless push for more intermittent solar-wind in the grid results in even higher electricity prices – higher transmission charges, higher subsidies via the feed in tariff allowance (FIT-All) plus GEA-All starting January 2026.

Countries that have more coal electricity production have larger economies. Five countries with large coal generation in 2024 are China with 5,828 TWh, India with 1,518 TWh, the US with 712 TWh, Japan with 301 TWh and Russia with 212 TWh. They are also the top five largest economies in the world in GDP size at PPP values in 2024: China with $38.2 trillion, the US with $29.2 trillion, India with $16.2 trillion, Russia with $6.9 trillion and Japan with $6.5 trillion.

The Philippines and other developing countries should pursue the business-as-usual energy policies of having more coal-gas plus nuclear in their power generation mix. This will help ensure their energy security, stable electricity prices and no unnecessary subsidies like FIT and GEA allowances.

The next round of DOE energy auction should be a baseload energy auction and stop the GEA as they are already overcrowded and over-rated.