Torrential rain to hit some areas due to Crising, southwest monsoon

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Tropical Depression Crising remains on track to intensify into a tropical storm on Thursday, July 17, as it continues to enhance the southwest monsoon

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Crising and the enhanced southwest monsoon or habagat are already expected to trigger intense to torrential rain in some areas, the weather bureau warned the public on Thursday morning, July 17.

In its 11 am bulletin on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Crising was located 520 kilometers east northeast of Juban, Sorsogon, or 470 kilometers east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, as of 10 am.

The tropical depression is now moving north northwest at 25 kilometers per hour, faster than its previous speed of 15 km/h.

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h, but remains on track to intensify into a tropical storm on Thursday and into a severe tropical storm on Friday afternoon or evening, July 18, as it heads for Northern Luzon.

Below is PAGASA’s latest rainfall outlook for Crising.

Thursday noon, July 17, to Friday noon, July 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran

Friday noon, July 18, to Saturday noon, July 19

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Abra, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ifugao, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya

Saturday noon, July 19, to Sunday noon, July 20

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, Cagayan

Floods and landslides are likely in areas affected by the tropical cyclone.

Signal No. 1 was also raised in more areas at 11 am on Thursday, with Crising expected to bring strong winds:

• southern part of Batanes (Sabtang, Ivana, Uyugan, Mahatao, Basco)
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Isabela
• Quirino
• northeastern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Bayombong, Solano, Ambaguio, Villaverde)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)
• Apayao
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Ilocos Sur (Vigan City, Santa, Caoayan, Bantay, Nagbukel, Narvacan, Cabugao, San Juan, Sinait, Magsingal, San Ildefonso, Santo Domingo, San Vicente, Santa Catalina)
• northern and eastern parts of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto)

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal is Signal No. 3.

PAGASA issued another storm surge warning at 8 am on Thursday, warning of a “minimal to moderate risk” of “life-threatening” storm surges with peak heights of 1 to 2 meters in Cagayan — including Babuyan Islands — and Isabela within 48 hours.

Crising might make landfall in mainland Cagayan on Friday evening or early Saturday morning, July 19. Then it would cross Northern Luzon and possibly exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday evening or Sunday morning, July 20.

Meanwhile, these areas will get the most rain from the southwest monsoon:

Thursday noon, July 17, to Friday noon, July 18

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Occidental Mindoro, Antique
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Palawan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Cebu, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur

Friday noon, July 18, to Saturday noon, July 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Antique
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Aklan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental

Saturday noon, July 19, to Sunday noon, July 20

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental

Affected areas must be on alert for floods and landslides, too.

The southwest monsoon is also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to the following regions and provinces:

Thursday, July 17

• Batangas, Quezon, rest of Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Sarangani

Friday, July 18

• Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

Saturday, July 19

• Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

For coastal waters, moderate to rough conditions will persist in several of the country’s seaboards on Thursday.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Eastern seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, Isabela, and northern Aurora; western seaboards of Palawan – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Remaining seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, and Palawan; northern and western seaboards of Zamboanga del Norte, and Camiguin; southern seaboards of Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol, and Southern Leyte; eastern seaboards of Davao Region; seaboards of Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Western seaboard of Occidental Mindoro and Romblon; northwestern seaboard of Masbate; remaining seaboards of Aurora, Catanduanes, and Antique; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur; eastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Crising is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2025 and the second tropical cyclone for July, after Typhoon Bising (Danas) in the first week of the month.

PAGASA earlier estimated two or three tropical cyclones could develop within or enter PAR in July. – Rappler.com