Tropical Depression Crising maintains strength east of Aurora

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Floods and landslides are likely amid worsening rainfall from Tropical Depression Crising and the enhanced southwest monsoon on Thursday, July 17

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Crising maintained its strength over the sea east of Aurora as it continued to dump rain on parts of Luzon and the Visayas on Thursday afternoon, July 17.

Crising was last spotted 545 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, or 335 kilometers northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, at 4 pm on Thursday. It slightly accelerated, moving west northwest at 30 kilometers per hour from the previous 25 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm that the tropical depression still has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

But Crising may intensify into a tropical storm on Thursday night or early Friday morning, July 18, then into a severe tropical storm by Saturday morning or afternoon, July 19.

“However, further intensification over the Philippine Sea and the possibility of reaching severe tropical storm [category] before landfall is not ruled out,” added PAGASA.

Crising could make landfall in mainland Cagayan by Friday evening, then cross Northern Luzon. But even before its potential landfall, the tropical cyclone is already causing moderate to torrential rain in the following provinces:

Thursday afternoon, July 17, to Friday afternoon, July 18

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Catanduanes
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Apayao, Kalinga, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran

Friday afternoon, July 18, to Saturday afternoon, July 19

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Apayao, Ilocos Norte
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Abra, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ifugao, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya

Saturday afternoon, July 19, to Sunday afternoon, July 20

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur

Floods and landslides are expected.

The list of areas under Signal No. 1 was also expanded as of 5 pm on Thursday. This means strong winds will hit the following:

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Isabela
• Quirino
• northern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Bayombong, Solano, Ambaguio, Villaverde, Dupax del Norte, Bambang, Kayapa)
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler)
• Abra
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• northern part of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias, Kibungan, Kabayan, Bokod, Atok, Kapangan)
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• northern part of La Union (Bangar, Sudipen, Luna, Balaoan, Santol, San Gabriel, Bacnotan)
• Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• northern part of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, San Jose, Presentacion, Tinambac, Siruma, Goa)
• Catanduanes

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal is Signal No. 2 or 3.

A new storm surge warning was also issued at 2 pm on Thursday. PAGASA said there is a “minimal to moderate risk” of “life-threatening” storm surges with peak heights of 1 to 2 meters in Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and Ilocos Norte in the next 48 hours.

Crising may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday afternoon.

The southwest monsoon or habagat, which is being enhanced by Crising, is causing moderate to intense rain as well. Affected areas should stay on alert for floods and landslides.

Thursday afternoon, July 17, to Friday afternoon, July 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Iloilo, Guimaras, Antique, Negros Occidental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Cebu, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur

Friday afternoon, July 18, to Saturday afternoon, July 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Antique
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Aklan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental

Saturday afternoon, July 19, to Sunday afternoon, July 20

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, Oriental Mindoro

The southwest monsoon is also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to the following regions and provinces:

Thursday, July 17

• Batangas, Quezon, rest of Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Sarangani

Friday, July 18

• Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

Saturday, July 19

• Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

Coastal conditions remain dangerous for small vessels in certain seaboards.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Eastern seaboards of Batanes – waves up to 4 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora; western seaboards of Palawan; southern seaboards of Antique, Iloilo, and Guimaras; western and southern seaboards of Negros Occidental – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Remaining seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, and Palawan; northern and western seaboards of Zamboanga del Norte, and Camiguin; southern seaboards of Siquijor, Bohol, and Southern Leyte; eastern seaboards of Davao Region; seaboards of Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Western seaboard of Occidental Mindoro and Romblon; northwestern seaboard of Masbate; remaining seaboards of Aurora and Antique; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur; eastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Crising is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2025 and the second tropical cyclone for July, after Typhoon Bising (Danas) in the first week of the month.

PAGASA earlier estimated two or three tropical cyclones could develop within or enter PAR in July. – Rappler.com