Tropical Depression Crising, southwest monsoon seen to trigger floods, landslides

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Tropical Depression Crising is located 535 kilometers east of Juban, Sorsogon, at 4 am on Thursday, July 17

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Crising and the southwest monsoon or habagat, which is being enhanced by the tropical cyclone, will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of Luzon and the Visayas on Thursday, July 17.

Crising was last spotted 535 kilometers east of Juban, Sorsogon, at 4 am on Thursday. It is moving west northwest at 15 kilometers per hour, slightly faster than its previous speed of 10 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin issued at 5 am that the tropical depression still has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

But Crising is still projected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday, and into a severe tropical storm on Friday afternoon or evening, July 18, as it moves toward Northern Luzon.

On Thursday, Crising is causing rain in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte, while remaining areas in the country are affected by the southwest monsoon.

For the tropical depression in particular, these provinces are seeing the most rain in the next three days, based on PAGASA’s updated rainfall outlook released at 5 am on Thursday:

Thursday, July 17

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran

Friday, July 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Isabela
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): La Union, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Aurora

Saturday, July 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Kalinga, Mountain Province

Floods and landslides are expected.

More areas were also placed under Signal No. 1 as of 5 am on Thursday, which means they have lead time of 36 hours to prepare for strong winds from Crising:

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Isabela
• northeastern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)
• Quirino
• Kalinga
• eastern part of Mountain Province (Sadanga, Barlig, Paracelis, Natonin)
• eastern part of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Mayoyao, Banaue, Hingyon, Lagawe, Lamut)
• northeastern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi)
• Apayao

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal is Signal No. 3.

PAGASA also issued a separate storm surge warning at 2 am on Thursday, warning of a “minimal to moderate risk” of “life-threatening” storm surges with peak heights of 1 to 2 meters in Cagayan — including Babuyan Islands — and Isabela within 48 hours.

Crising might make landfall in mainland Cagayan on Friday evening or early Saturday morning, July 19. Then it would cross Northern Luzon and possibly exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday evening or Sunday morning, July 20.

Meanwhile, here are the areas seeing the heaviest rain from the southwest monsoon:

Thursday, July 17

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Occidental Mindoro, Antique, Negros Occidental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Palawan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Oriental, Cebu, Siquijor

Friday, July 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Antique, Negros Occidental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Oriental

Saturday, July 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, Antique
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental

PAGASA reiterated that floods and landslides are likely.

The southwest monsoon is also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to the following regions and provinces:

Thursday, July 17

• Batangas, Quezon, Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Sarangani

Friday, July 18

• Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

Saturday, July 19

• Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

For coastal waters, moderate to rough conditions will persist in several of the country’s seaboards on Thursday.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Western seaboard of Palawan; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; northern and western seaboards of Zamboanga del Norte and Camiguin; southern seaboards of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol, and Southern Leyte; eastern seaboards of Davao Region; western seaboards of Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Northwestern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro; northwestern seaboard of Masbate; southwestern seaboards of Antique and Negros Occidental; eastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Crising is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2025 and the second tropical cyclone for July, after Typhoon Bising (Danas) in the first week of the month.

PAGASA earlier estimated two or three tropical cyclones could develop within or enter PAR in July. – Rappler.com