Trump's Iran war is weakening US deterrence in South China Sea, senator warns

March 5, 2026 | 5:09pm

MANILA, Philippines — American President Donald Trump's war in Iran is weakening the United States military's ability to deter China in the South China Sea, a senator warned Tuesday, March 3.

US Senator Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war combat veteran on the Senate Armed Services Committee, warned that a conflict west of the Philippines could put more than 750,000 Americans living in the country at risk and would require evacuations across six countries' airspaces just to get them to safety.

The Philippines is not a party to the current escalating conflict in the Middle East, which started with a joint strike by US and Israel on Iran. Manila has stressed that its nine EDCA sites are Philippine military bases under its own control — not American installations — and that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ruled out their use for offensive operations. Defense officials say there is no credible threat to Philippine territory from the fighting.

But the Philippines also depends on the US as its principal security ally in the West Philippine Sea, where China has escalated its military posture by conducting persistent air and naval exercises around contested features. 

More than 500 joint military activities are planned between the US and the Philippine military for 2026, the most in the alliance's history.  

"Let's be clear: We are a Pacific nation," Duckworth was quoted as saying during a hearing with US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby. "There are very real signs that the People's Republic of China is exploiting Trump's adventurism to threaten all of this."

The senator warned that a clash involving the disputed islands on the western side of the Philippines could disrupt as much as one-third of global maritime trade, including oil, gas, electronics and agricultural goods that flow through the South China Sea. Getting Americans to safety in such a scenario would require coordination across multiple Southeast Asian nations, she said.

That level of planning, she argued, is impossible when the US military is consumed by what she called an illegal and reckless campaign in the Middle East.

"If the U.S. isn't prepared, flinches or delays a response, the PRC could exploit it," Duckworth said. "We have to be ready right away — but that kind of crisis planning requires focus and preparation to prevent it from spiraling into war."

Colby, the Pentagon's top policy official, agreed that coordination with the Philippines and other Indo-Pacific partners must remain a top priority for the Department of Defense.

Trump launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28 — a joint campaign with Israel that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and struck over 1,000 targets in its opening days. 

At least one Filipino national was reported killed in Israel from strikes presumed to be from Iran. She is the first and only casualty from the Philippines so far in the recent conflict.

An estimated 2.4 million Filipinos live and work across the Middle East.

Trump has said the operation could last four to five weeks but has also said he would do "whatever it takes."