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A view of superpower rivalry at the local level
We usually look at superpower competition using a telescope, giving us a sweeping view of the highs and lows. Rarely do we consider the epic rivalry between the US and China on the ground, at street level, using a microscope.
This is what a group of academics from the University of the Philippines did. In a pioneering study, political science professors led by Aries Arugay focused their lens on two provinces, distant from each other, but similar in a number of ways: Cagayan and Palawan.
First, both provinces are on the frontlines of potential conflict. Cagayan lies in the northern part of the Philippines, facing Taiwan across the Luzon Strait. Palawan faces the West Philippine Sea.
Taiwan is a hotspot, dangerously eyed by President Xi Jinping for blockade or invasion, intent on returning what China considers its renegade province. In the West Philippine Sea, China has nakedly shown its intent to dominate our waters.
Second, Cagayan and Palawan each host two Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites: Lal-lo airport and Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; and Balabac Island and Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan. US military troops enjoy rotational access to these sites.
Third, these provinces are among those that host the annual Balikatan, a major joint US-Philippines military exercise.
Cagayan has differed from Palawan in one way: It initially opposed locating the EDCA sites and hosting the Balikatan there for fear of ruffling “good relations” with the Chinese. Manuel Mamba, then governor, said “It may cause a diplomatic row…We don’t want to anger China here in Cagayan. We see that we could get help from them.”
Eventually, Mamba was pressured into saying yes to the EDCA sites by the majority of his province’s mayors as well as allowing the joint US-Philippine military drills.
Cagayan
The UP professors’ 68-page study, entitled “Localization of the United States-China Rivalry: Cases from the Philippines,” found that Cagayan appears to be more tolerant of Chinese influence because its “local elites recognize Chinese presence as part of the province’s history.” Chinese companies have invested in Cagayan since the 1990s, mainly in the online gambling industry. Apart from this, it was a China loan that funded the Chico River Pump Irrigation project that benefits almost 8,000 hectares of farm land in two Cagayan towns.
The Chinese government has been providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to Cagayan, “sometimes even sending these goods in advance, before calamities hit.” Chinese officials, from diplomats to investors, have also visited the province more frequently.
The authors — Arugay, Miguel Antonio Hermo, Edcel John Ibarra and Aletheia Kerygma Valenciano — wrote that “China has an advantage over the US and other major powers in Cagayan through its consular presence in the northern Philippines,” referring to Laoag in the neighboring Ilocos province.
Thus, the US is playing catch up in Cagayan although it has increased its humanitarian assistance after the EDCA sites were announced, providing assistance to civil society groups in the fisheries, renewable energy and environmental protection sectors.
Palawan
Similarly, the US is a “latecomer” in Palawan: “It has done little beyond military assistance and defense partnerships: it is playing catch-up in development cooperation and assistance.”
The study found that China’s approach is “more sophisticated” as it tries to exert economic, political and diplomatic influence in the province. For example, Chinese businesses have initiated “land purchases on the west coast through a co-ownership scheme that is legally allowed under the law.” These have limited the availability of fishing areas for local fishermen.
China’s presence in the province’s economy is much bigger than that of the US. This is palpable in nickel mining because Palawan contributes 25% to the national production of nickel — and China is the Philippines’ largest trading partner for nickel ore.
The study cited local government sources who were concerned about reports linking politicians, local mining businesses and China-based businesses.
Palawan also has a sister-city agreement with Hainan which enables local students to study in various academic institutions in China. This arrangement may have soured because of the recent arrest of three Palaweños for allegedly spying on China. They were recipients of the Hainan Government Scholarship Program established under the sisterhood agreement.
Overall, though, the province is shielded from pervasive Chinese influence by a “strong nationalist sentiment among the local population who have first-hand experience of China’s aggressive behavior.” These include political leaders, the military, civil society, and students.
On the local level, the long history of the US and Philippine alliance has not translated into American presence in the economic and social lives of the population in two provinces vital to the security of our country.
Let me know what you think. You can email me at marites.vitug@rappler.com.
Till next newsletter!
