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Adrian Kenneth Halili - The Philippine Star
May 2, 2026 | 12:00am
In a report, the USDA said local raw sugar production could decline by one percent to 1.93 million MT during the 2026 to 2027 marketing year from 1.95 million MT a year prior.
STAR / File
MANILA, Philippines — Local sugar production is estimated to decline by 200,000 metric tons (MT) this year due to the effects of the incoming El Niño weather phenomenon and the lack of sugarcane expansion areas, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.
In a report, the USDA said local raw sugar production could decline by one percent to 1.93 million MT during the 2026 to 2027 marketing year from 1.95 million MT a year prior.
“The forecast decline is attributed primarily to the potential impact of El Niño on sugarcane production, alongside the limited area for expansion,” the international agency said. The marketing year is set to begin by October and end in September next year.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration earlier said it is expecting El Niño conditions to emerge by June to August and could persist until October to December.
The US agency added that below normal rainfall and elevated temperatures during El Niño could cause early maturity resulting in lower sugarcane volumes, reduced sugar content, and potential early mill closure.
The decline in local output could also place a strain on supply, causing a seven-percent drop in domestic sugar stocks to 704,000 MT for the incoming marketing year from 753,000 MT in 2025.
It said that the Philippine government’s mitigation measures could temper the impact of the incoming weather event on production.
Last week, Agriculture Secretary Frencisco Tiu Laurel Jr. ordered the preparation of measure to lessen the impact of the upcoming dry season on farm production, especially as higher fuel and fertilizer costs add further pressure.
The USDA added that the limited land for expansions could also contribute to the drop in production during the upcoming marketing year.
The report said that sugarcane area is estimated around 400,000 hectares, “tempered by the conversion of agricultural land to residential and industrial uses.”
