[Vantage Point] Villar Land’s net income: A trillion-peso mirage?

2 weeks ago 19
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It is no wonder that what Villar Land Holdings Corporation (PSE: VLC), formerly Golden MV Holdings, reported recently to the media as a stock disclosure, would shock investors. The firm announced a nearly P1 trillion in net income for 2024 — the largest, single-year profit ever reported by a Philippine company. 

In its March 21, 2025 announcement, Golden MV said it experienced a rise in fair value gains of its investment properties totaling P1.33 trillion in the previous year, due mainly to  the value appreciation of these properties. These fair value gains led to the company’s total assets amounting to P1.37 trillion by the end of 2024.

In September of last year, the company had purchased Althorp Land Holdings Incorporated, Chalgrove Properties Incorporated, and Los Valores Corporation, which together own 366 hectares of valuable land in Villar City, a 3,500-hectare project located south of Manila. Golden MV stated that the assets were logged in the records as investment properties and accounted for with the use of the fair value approach.

The fair value method is an accounting adjustment that allows companies to recognize unrealized increases in the market value of their assets as income, without any actual sale or cash inflow. 

The term “fair market value” (FMV) refers to the price a property would realistically fetch in a competitive market, provided that both the buyer and seller are informed, willing, and acting in their own best interests. FMV is different from the assessed value of the property for taxation, an appraiser’s estimate, or the subjective beliefs of a buyer or seller about the property’s value.

As of this writing, a search of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) Edge database, the company’s own website, and global platforms like Bloomberg and S&P Global reveals no financial filings supporting VLC’s claim. The latest publicly available statement filed is dated September 2024. 

What Vantage Point has learned so far is that, on April 1, 2025, VLC requested the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the PSE to approve the change of its corporate name and stock symbol, citing that its reported earning surge to a revaluation of investment properties. The SEC approved the name change on April 15. The company claimed nearly P1 trillion in net income for 2024, supposedly driven by P1.33 trillion in fair value gains.

Then, on May 16, 2025, the PSE suspended trading of Golden MV’s shares due to its failure to submit its 2024 annual report — an issue that also affected other Villar-affiliated firms. On May 19, however, the PSE lifted the suspension of Vista Land & Lifescapes Incorporated and two other firms after receiving copies of their due annual reports. While Vista Land already submitted its annual report, two other Villar-owned companies — Vistamalls and Golden MV Holdings — have yet to submit theirs as of this writing.

With no audited data beyond the third quarter of 2024 to confim the massive profit and only non-cash gains driving the VLC narrative, the supposed P1-trillion earnings figure increasingly appears to be a public relations spin rather than a reflection of actual business performance.

A valuation based on vapor?

Consider this: A property bought years ago for maybe P200 per square meter (sqm) is now worth P20,000 per square meter (sqm) at present appraised and market values, due basically to inflation and appreciation over time.

Imagine the big difference of P19,800 per sqm increase (P20,000 present value less P200 cost) multiplied by hundreds of thousands of square meters of land acquired over the years.

The P19,800 difference is called “appraisal increase” in accounting and treated as an increase in net worth (paper income), since it is simply unrealized. An actual increase in net worth can only happen when the P200 per sqm is actually sold at P20,000, which could either still happen in the far future or not happen at all because nobody is buying the lot due to economic reasons or property glut. Or, even worse, the appraisal value was bloated.

Example: The actual market value of a property is only P2,000 per sqm, but a so-called independent appraiser says its appraisal value is P20,000. 

Imagine the number of zeros you can add by merely basing your property value on the personal opinion of an appraiser. That, my friend, is creative accounting which is not commonly explained or understood by mortals like us. What if Ayala Land and SM Development Corporation were to also re-appraise their respective values? Get the drift?

In reality, Villar Land could be burning cash, losing revenue, and trading at valuation multiples beyond its true worth. This is not a success story. It’s a textbook case of financial alchemy.

Key findings: Villar Land is a cash burner, not a cash machine

For the 12 months ending September 2024, Villar Land posted negative P1.5 billion in free cash flow — a staggering contradiction to its supposed P1.3 trillion profit. While it was celebrating record earnings on paper, the company was bleeding real money. You just can’t pay interest, dividends, or salaries with fair value gains. The market eventually wakes up to that.

1. ‘Profits’ built entirely on paper

According to the company’s last publicly available financial filing (12 months ending September 30, 2024), Villar Land’s:

  • Net income was P1.38 billion
  • Fair value gains were P1.62 billion

Subtract the accounting magic, and Villar Land lost money operationally. There was no meaningful contribution from actual property sales, leasing income, or business expansion.

When 117% of your profits are non-cash revaluations, you’re not making money. You are writing fiction.

2. Negative cash from operations: A business in reverse

Villar Land’s cash flow statement reveals brutal truths:

  • Cash from operations: -(minus) P1.46 billion
  • Free cash flow: -(minus) P1.51 billion
  • Change in unearned revenues: -(minus) P1.62 billion

Despite showing accounting profits, the company is hemorrhaging real cash. Even more alarming, the collapse in unearned revenues suggests that buyers are walking away, deposits are being refunded, or presales are drying up.

Healthy companies don’t report record earnings while burning cash and losing advance payments.

3. Long-term decline hidden behind a name change

Villar Land, formerly Golden MV Holdings, rebranded in early 2025 and changed its ticker to “VLC” just before disclosing its earnings. This conveniently-timed facelift obscured an ugly reality:

  • Earnings have declined -11.1% annually over the past 5 years
  • Revenue has contracted -12.3% annually
  • Philippine Consumer Services sector grew +22.7% annually

This isn’t an outlier. It’s a long-term decline papered over with accounting gimmicks and PR spin.

4. The most overvalued company in the Philippines?

As of May 15, 2025, VLC traded at:

  • Price-to-Earnings (P/E): 1,071x
  • Price-to-Sales (P/S): 269x

For context, even the frothiest growth stocks in the United States’ dotcom bubble rarely traded this high. VLC isn’t selling a vision of future innovation. It’s marking up old land and calling it income.

The market is paying luxury valuations for a business in free fall.

6. Villar City acquisitions and the revaluation feedback loop

In 2024, VLC acquired land through Althorp Land Holdings, Chalgrove Properties, and Los Valores Corporation for its Villar City project. These transactions conveniently:

  • Added acreage to the company’s books
  • Created the narrative for revaluations
  • Drove fair value gains that “boosted” income

This sets up a dangerous loop: Acquire land → Revalue land → Book profit → Inflate stock → Justify further acquisitions → Repeat

This circular model works, but only until the cash dries up or auditors demand reality-based valuations.

Conclusion: Villar Land is a story only an excel spreadsheet could love

Beneath the rebranding and revaluations, Villar Land Holdings is a hollowed-out real estate shell. It is:

  • Losing revenue
  • Burning through cash
  • Propped up by non-cash gains
  • And, trading at multiples 100x greater than the sector average

The company has not generated real, sustainable value in years. Its latest “profits” are not profits at all — they are the byproduct of accounting distortion, not economic performance.

In our view, the company is overvalued by an order of magnitude, and we expect a sharp correction once investors wake up to the disparity between cash and claims. The reckoning isn’t coming. It has begun. – Rappler.com

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