View from Manila: For third time, Marcos will be back in the White House 

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How will Marcos fare in his first meeting with the unpredictable Donald Trump?

MANILA, Philippines — The two times that Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. stepped into the White House as commander-in-chief were milestone events.

The first visit in May 2023 marked Manila’s return to its longstanding ally after six years of a China pivot under former president Rodrigo Duterte. The second time, in April 2024, was for the landmark trilateral leaders summit between then-US president Joe Biden, then-Japanese prime minister Kishia Fumio, and Marcos. 

Marcos’ third visit on Tuesday, July 22 (morning in Washington, DC; evening in Manila), will be his first during Donald Trump’s second stint as US President. It will also be the first where observers wait with bated breath for its outcome. 

These meetings — be it in the context of working, official, or state visits — are usually choreographed. Aides and officials negotiate all that’s to be discussed prior, and there is barely space for surprise from either or all sides in high-stakes meetings involving world leaders.

But it’s been anything but the “usual” under Trump, if one considers his previous meetings with fellow heads of state. A previous interaction between Marcos and Trump was during a quick congratulatory call to the elected US president in November 2024. Back then, little was spoken about policy. The two instead chatted about Marcos’ mother, the former first lady Imelda, whom Trump was apparently more familiar with. 

The US President’s interactions with leaders in the Oval Office have occasionally resulted in viral video clips, such as the February 2025 meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump’s recent meeting with the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal was at times awkward and a “masterclass in modern colonial theater,” as Al-Jazeera put it. 

How will Marcos’ fare in his first meeting with Trump?

The Philippine President, in a statement ahead of flying out to Washington DC, said “greater economic engagement” was his top priority for his quick US trip. That’s not a surprise. Trump surprised the world by announcing a higher tariff rate for several countries, including the Philippines. 

From the 17% rate he announced (and then paused) during “Liberation Day” on April 2, it’s now up to 20%, supposedly effective August 1. Marcos’ forthcoming White House visit was made public by State Secretary Marco Rubio the next day. And even ahead of Marcos’ White House meeting, Philippine negotiators already flew to Washington DC to negotiate tariffs. 

Will Marcos flying all the way to Washington, DC, just a week before his fourth State of the Nation Address (SONA), help move negotiations to Manila’s favor? 

 “We will see how much progress we can make when it comes to the negotiations with the United States concerning the changes that we would like to institute so as to be able to alleviate the effects of a very severe tariff schedule on the Philippines,” said Marcos on July 20.

The Philippines President has never really had to square off with a tough counterpart in his three years as President — except, perhaps, in the case of his quick pull aside with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco back in 2024. Sources recall the meeting as tense, and anything but a real conversation. 

Days after that meeting with Xi, Marcos then visited the Indo-Pacific Command’s headquarters in Hawaii. Following this, the Philippines and United States embarked on the very first Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCAs) or joint exercise in the West Philippine Sea. MCAs have become a regular occurrence in the western part of the Philippines’ maritime zone and has since expanded to involve, more and more, agencies like the Philippine Coast Guard. 

Dealing with Xi is one thing. Before that November 2023 meeting, tensions were already rising in the West Philippine Sea. The Chinese maritime forces’ harassment of Filipinos out at sea had become more and more public — to Beijing’s chagrin. 

On the other hand, Trump and America have changed, especially how they interact with the world.

United States Agency for International Development is no longer, and so are much needed food, medical intervention, and education programs “from the American people.” The US has also asked its allies to pick up more of the tab when it comes to security and defense. It’s a move experts say is long overdue anyway, as security challenges become more complex. 

The Philippines has been trying to increase spending on defense, but there are obvious fiscal limits. Manila has been turning to expanding and increasing its security deals, in recognition of these shortcomings. Several groups, according to the military, have been expanded to commands — the Joint Special Operations Command and the Cyber Command among them — in a bid to prepare itself for more military and security partners. 

But Marcos has a more pressing problem for now: trade with its longtime partner and one-time colonizer. 

Can Marcos — and perhaps, more importantly, his trade negotiators — knock sense into the “reciprocal” 20% tariff? And will defense and diplomatic negotiations be able to show in more concrete terms what a pivot to Asia under Trump 2.0 means? – Rappler.com