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A month after the United States and Israel first launched what they have called a “pre-emptive strike” against Iran, and after the global oil price crisis that followed it, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro spoke to her Iranian counterpart, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, to secure safe passage for “Philippine-flagged vessels, energy sources, and all Filipino seafarers” along the Strait of Hormuz. This is where a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes through daily.
But any possible positive effects — in terms of supply or in bringing down oil prices domestically — are unlikely to be seen or felt right away.
After all, it’s typically not Philippine-flag ships that carry crude oil from the Gulf to refineries in Asia, before refined petroleum products are then delivered to the Philippines. These refineries are found in South Korea, Japan, China, and Singapore, to name a few.
Before hostilities erupted in the gulf, the Philippines sourced almost all of its oil from the Middle East — most of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has gained near full control of passage through the strait. Tehran has since allowed limited access to vessels carrying the flag of a “non-hostile country.”
In an address in late March 2026 to a nation that’s seen gas prices double since the start of the war in the gulf, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said: “I’m very confident in saying that we have sufficient supply. We will continue to source those supplies. And I do not think that there is a problem. Sa aming analysis, wala tayong problema para sa supply ng petrolyo at saka ng mga petroleum products.”
(In our analysis, we do not have a problem when it comes to the supply of petroleum and petroleum products.)
Rappler sources echo the same sentiment — that the administration isn’t as worried about where to source petroleum products as it is in mitigating the sharp rise in global oil prices. Government’s response has been, so far, to deliver aid to key sectors that are the most vulnerable to the rise in gas prices.
So where will a country under a year-long national energy crisis find its oil?
Russia was one of the first alternative sources.
Before March ended, the Philippines received a 700,000-barrel shipment of crude oil from Russia consigned to Petron, only because US President Donald Trump issued a month-long waiver for Russian oil already stranded at sea.
Unless Trump extends the waiver, it will be in place until mid-April. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United States and several other G7 countries have imposed sanctions on Russian oil.
Violation of US sanctions could result in financial penalties for companies, possible freezing of assets in US banks, and loss of access to the US banking system, among others.
Lazaro, in a media briefing on March 25, said there “has been some kind of move” to “request to lift the sanction on possible exportation from Russia.” Lazaro declined to give further details, saying this was for the Department of Energy to handle.
Manila’s envoy to Washington DC, Marcos’ cousin Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez, earlier said the embassy was working on getting “waivers or exemptions to purchase oil from US-sanctioned countries.” The US imposes sanctions of varying degrees on several oil-producing countries, including Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, and Libya.
Before issuing a temporary exemption on Russian oil already at sea in mid-March, the US had temporarily allowed India to purchase Russian oil that was also loaded onto vessels that were stuck at sea.
What would a waiver or exemption look like?
According to government sources, and going off what little Lazaro had publicly said, the Philippines is looking to negotiate either a possible extension of that existing waiver on Russian oil or an even broader exemption that’s specific to Manila itself.
Top oil producers
Around the world, Manila’s ambassadors have been directed to reach out to key countries to safeguard supply for the country’s energy needs. The DFA has been doing the same in Manila, reaching out to the envoys of those countries as well. Lazaro declined to name those countries.
According to the United States’ Energy Information Administration (EIA), it was the US that topped the list of global oil producers in 2023, producing nearly twice that of the second-highest oil producer Saudi Arabia and the third on the list, Russia. The top three oil-producing nations in 2023 — the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia accounted for a third of oil production globally. The same numbers held true in 2024, based on a report by the Energy Institute (EI).
Top 10 oil producers, still according to the EIA are:
- United States
- Saudi Arabia
- Russia
- Canada
- China
- Iraq
- Brazil
- United Arab Emirates
- Iran
- Kuwait
Most of the US’ crude oil goes to Europe, Canada, and Singapore, based on EI’s 2024 report. US refined oil, meanwhile, mainly goes to countries in the South and Central Americas, as well as its closest neighbors Mexico and Canada, according to the EI 2024 report.
The US is a treaty ally of the Philippines, although it’s been clear, thus far — through Romualdez and Lazaro’s pronouncements — that US help could come in the form of aid in accessing oil from other countries, and not from the US itself.
Most of Canada’s crude oil and refined oil goes to the US.
China, Manila’s northern neighbor, is poised to extend its ban on refined fuel exports, according to Reuters. Some “exemptions” could be granted for “countries in the region that have requested help” to include Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Vietnam, according to the same Reuters report.
Beijing, the world’s largest oil importer that sources mostly from the Middle East, has been among the most insulated from the rise of global oil prices, thanks to decades of planning and a vast oil stockpile, Reuters said.
The Philippines maintains good diplomatic ties with the rest of the top 10 oil-producing countries, including Iraq. The last prominent bilateral meeting between the two countries took place in Manila back in 2023 for the 8th Philippines-Iraq Joint Commission Meeting.
Manila’s ties with the United Arab Emirates are especially robust, with the signing of a Free Trade Agreement in January 2026. However, oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Of the three Gulf countries, two have alternate networks to transport crude — Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline network and UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, according to CNBC.
Beyond direct access to oil
Possible bilateral cooperation in helping secure the Philippines’ energy needs is not limited to direct access to an oil-producing nation’s crude oil to refined petroleum. Some envoys in other countries have been reaching out to shipping or energy companies based in the countries they are posted to, for instance, to find new means to get oil — covering both petroleum and petroleum products — to the Philippines.
With hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran showing no immediate signs of abating, the Philippines’ plans assume, for the most part, having to find sources outside of the Middle East, according to government sources.
As Marcos himself said, his administration doesn’t see oil supply as its biggest problem. Despite the decreased flow of oil from the gulf, sources are confident Manila will find a steady supply — be it crude oil that’ll then be refined by Petron or refined products from other nearby refineries.
The spike in the prices of these petroleum products is a different matter — one that economic managers will have to find a solution to, on top of targeted subsidies that the executive has started to roll out.
The month-long war has apparently also prompted Marcos to push even further the country’s proposed “reset” of bilateral ties with China, whose sweeping South China Sea claims encroaches on the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and features that Manila claims as well.
Marcos has floated openness to joint energy talks with Beijing. – Rappler.com
