World Bank cuts Philippines growth forecast to 3.7%

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April 9, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The World Bank trimmed its growth forecast for the Philippines for this year with the Middle East conflict seen to affect economic activity.

In an online briefing yesterday, World Bank senior economist Ergys Islamaj said the multilateral lender expects the Philippine economy to grow by 3.7 percent this year.

This is lower than the multilateral lender’s 5.3 percent growth forecast provided in January.

 The latest forecast is also below the government’s five to six percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for the year.

If the new growth forecast is realized, the Philippine economy will be growing at a slower pace than the 4.4 percent growth posted in 2024.

“Philippines is exposed to the conflict not only through energy and fertilizer imports but also through remittances,” Islamaj said.

 With 18 percent of remittances to the Philippines coming from the Gulf, the World Bank expects a longer conflict in the Middle East to hurt the Philippine economy further.

 For 2027, the World Bank expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.6 percent. This is higher than the 5.4 percent growth forecast provided in January.

It is also within the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth target for next year.

Department of Economy, Planning and Development Secretary (DEPDev) Arsenio Balisacan said that economic growth is likely to fall below the government’s target for this year if world oil prices remain elevated.

During the House of Representatives committee on ways and means hearing yesterday, Balisacan said economic growth could go as low as 3.5 percent this year under the worst case scenario of world oil prices staying at $150 a barrel.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release data on the first quarter economic performance next month.